As the Pacific approaches its cyclone season, Pacific Island countries are also preparing themselves for warmer and wetter conditions caused by an El Niño.
In July, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned there is a one-in-five chance that this El Niño event will be of “historic” strength, rivalling the major one experienced in 1997 that caused widespread drought, flooding, and other natural disasters all over the world.
“It will more likely strengthen throughout the year, with an 81% chance it will peak with a ‘moderate to strong intensity’ between November 2023 and January 2024,” said NOAA.
With Pacific Island countries already grappling with climate change, Philip Malsale, a climatologist with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), clarified that El Niño events can be affected by climate change through long-term changes in average rainfall and temperature.
“Climate change occurs over decades, centuries or longer, as a result of both natural and man-made processes. It can mean the occurrence of extreme events such as tropical cyclones and droughts,” Malsale told Islands Business.
He said most Pacific Island countries will be affected by the El Niño in the next three months.
“When there are changes to rainfall and temperatures in the long term, all sectors such as agriculture, water, health, infrastructure, fisheries, tourism and aviation will be affected. There will be cascading impacts as well that we need to prepare for,” added Malsale.
“Agriculture and water are the two main sectors that will be affected during this El Niño event and it will impact the economy forecast for each country in the next 12 months.”
He noted: “Each El Niño event is different and so are the impacts. The impacts can continue until the dry season in the Pacific in April next year. This will be worse for countries which will experience cyclones in the 2023/24 season.”
Stronger tropical cyclones are forecast for the upcoming cyclone season. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand said it expects nine to 14 cyclones this season—nine being the long-term average.
NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook said Vanuatu, Fiji and the northern Cook Islands all had an elevated risk of cyclone activity.
Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, and Tonga are expected to see between three to four cyclones, while the Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa, and Tokelau can expect two to three.
On the sidelines of Fiji’s national tsunami simulation drill last month, Fiji’s Minister for Rural and Maritime Development and Disaster Management, Sakiasi Ditoka, confirmed with Islands Business that the nation is “preparing for category 5 cyclones”.
He said: “I believe we’re doing exactly what we need to be doing at the moment in preparing for the worst cases. The National Disaster Management Office is leading the charge here. I think the [Fiji] MET office already told us that there’s a potential for two or more category 3 cyclones coming through this season.”
Ditoka assured that the National Emergency Response Team has been trained and that disaster management systems are in place.
“Most flooding [events] experienced in the Solomon Islands is due to tropical cyclones,” said David Hiba Hiriasia, Director of Solomon Islands Meteorological Service, during a virtual plenary session on water security at the recent Pacific Resilience Meeting.
“A classic example is the 2014 flood. The years 2014 and 2015 were El Niño years. The 2014 flood was due to a low-pressure system [or Tropical Cyclone Ita] that was stationed around Guadalcanal. The impact was huge as 9.2% of the country’s GDP was affected,” Hiriasia explained.
To combat this issue, Hiriasia said the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service will be issuing early warnings such as “impact-based forecasting for heavy rain, and we also have a National Drought Plan. This is what we’re looking at on the current El Niño.”
Meanwhile in Papua New Guinea, latest seasonal forecasts indicate a particularly high likelihood of below normal rainfall for the country, according to the World Health Organization’s Public Health Situation Analysis for El Nino for October-December 2023.
“In West Papua, Indonesia and in Papua New Guinea, El Niño is historically associated with drought-like conditions and wildfires that can cause considerable damage to grasslands for livestock and disrupt subsistence food supplies, worsening the already critical acute food insecurity situation,” the WHO report said.
The report also warned of an increased risk of transmission of diseases such as Dengue and Zika in PNG, as dry conditions are likely to increase mosquito breeding sites.
“With what the science is telling us, it’s going to be a new normal for the Pacific to expect and endure more frequent and more severe hazards,” Exsley Taloiburi, Deputy Director for the Pacific Community’s (SPC) Disaster and Community Resilience Programme told Islands Business.
“As a regional organisation, we are working to build the capacity and resilience of our Pacific Island countries and territories to prepare properly for these hazards that they are expecting.”
Taloiburi said capacity building training supported by SPC include the recent Fiji Disaster Awareness Week.
He continued: “We need to take into account the years of traditional knowledge that our communities possess, and how we bridge that together with the technical science that our regional organisations are forecasting, is very crucial… to help us prepare for these different disasters and hazards.”
As Islands Business went to press, a drought had been declared for Tonga’s main island of Tongatapu as well as the nearby island of ‘Eua with warnings and alerts put out for other islands.
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