For the first time in more than 40 years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has fired an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile across the Pacific, to splash down in waters near French Polynesia.
The Chinese missile test, held on September 25, followed a series of similar US tests last June, with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) fired from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California to Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands.
Coming at a time of heightened US-China strategic competition in the Pacific islands, there was strong regional condemnation of the Chinese test. It was the first Chinese test launch into the South Pacific since May 1980, when a DF-5 missile was fired into waters past Kiribati (in recent decades, China has tested its long-range missiles by firing from its east coast toward the Taklamakan Desert in the western Xinjiang region).
North Korea has also carried out numerous ICBM tests since 2017, including a launch last December of a solid-fuelled missile into waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
In recent years, Forum Island Countries have sought to strengthen disarmament initiatives such as the Treaty of Rarotonga for a South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone (SPNFZ) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Last March, Papua New Guinea became the 178th nation to formally ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), while on September 24, Solomon Islands became the 11th Forum member country to ratify the TPNW nuclear ban treaty.
At the recent Forum leaders’ meeting in Tonga, the final communiqué highlighted concern about regional militarisation by the major powers, including a call for an Ocean of Peace and stressing “the emphasis on increasing the region’s focus on the ‘peace’ element of the ‘peace and security’ efforts”.
China’s military expansion
Less than two hours after last month’s missile test, the PRC Ministry of National Defence issued a statement to announce: “The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force launched an ICBM carrying a dummy warhead to the high seas in the Pacific Ocean at 8.44am on 25 September, and the missile fell into Chinese troops on expected sea areas. This test launch is a routine arrangement in our annual training plan. It is in line with international law and international practice and is not directed against any country or target.”
The missile was launched from China’s Hainan Island, aimed just outside French Polynesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The missile flew high above the Philippines and Guam, landing in the ocean near the Marquesas Islands, after a flight of 11,500 kilometres.
The timing of the missile test sent messages in all directions about China’s standing as a world power. It coincided with the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly session in New York, and also sent a signal to Washington, following the recent deployment of US Typhon midrange ground-based missiles in the Philippines, perceived as a strategic threat by Beijing.
The successful PRC test also sought to send a message to Chinese citizens that the PLA Rocket Force had overcome recent scandals (over the last year, three former Rocket Force commanders Wei Fenghe, Zhou Yaning and Li Yuchao have all been purged by President Xi Jinping over alleged corrupt behaviour, while the former Rocket Force chief of staff Sun Jinming was expelled from the Chinese Communist Party).
Nuclear weapons analysts reported that September’s test used an unarmed Dongfeng-31AG missile (this type of missile can be armed with either a single nuclear warhead or three or four smaller warheads that can be released to attack multiple targets). Instead of being fired from a fixed missile silo, this ICBM can be moved around by road, to complicate targeting by a US nuclear attack.
China also has built more powerful long-range missiles such as the Dongfeng-41 and JL-3, which have ranges of more than 13,500km and are capable of hitting the United States. The DF-41 carries up to ten independently targeted nuclear warheads.
China has also developed the shorter-range DF-26 missile, nicknamed “Guam Killer,” which is specifically designed to target military installations in the US Micronesian territory such as Andersen Air Force Base and Apra Harbour naval base. Reacting to last month’s test, Leland Bettis of the Guambased Pacific Center for Island Security noted “the fact that the first ICBM launched into the Pacific just happened to pass over Guam is not likely a coincidence.”
Regional reaction
In a gesture of transparency, Beijing gave prior warning of the test to other nuclear weapons states like France and the United States.
Describing China’s warning as “a common sense, confidence-building measure,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh acknowledged that “we did receive some advance notification of this ICBM test. And we believe that was a good thing. That was a step in the right direction and it does lead to preventing any misperception or miscalculation”.
However, as the missile passed across the region, no warning was issued to Forum Island Countries – sparking critical reactions from Pacific leaders.
Addressing the annual opening of the UN General Assembly, Fiji President Ratu Wiliame Katonivere said: “We urge respect for our region, and call for cessation of such action under principle four of the Ocean of Peace, as was endorsed by the Pacific leaders in Tonga last month. Our statement reinforces the Pacific’s peaceful example to uphold international law and urge others to refrain from actions that undermine peace and security in the Blue Pacific.”
The government of Kiribati, which has diplomatic ties to Beijing, said, “Kiribati does not welcome China’s recent ICBM test”, noting “the high seas in the Pacific are not isolated pockets of oceans, they are part of our Blue Pacific Continent and are parts of Kiribati and therefore we appeal to all countries involved in weapon testing to stop these acts to maintain world peace and stability”.
Aligned with Taiwan, Palau President Surangel Whipps criticised Beijing’s actions, noting that “for a country that says it wants to promote peace, this doesn’t seem like a peaceful activity”.
In Mā`ohi Nui / French Polynesia, President Moetai Brotherson said he would contact China’s consul in Papeete to raise “my disappointment at the fact that we were not informed that this shot was aimed at our waters. The missile in question, which was obviously not armed, fell not far from our EEZ near the Marquesas Islands. I sent a message to the High Commissioner and the President of the Republic to get their opinion on this test, to know if it was planned and if they had been informed beforehand”.
The French High Commission in Papeete later confirmed that “the Chinese authorities had previously notified this test to their French counterparts”. However, Polynesie La1ere TV reported that “obviously, the French State forgot to warn the President of French Polynesia.”
Ironically, on the very day of the test, French High Commissioner Eric Spitz was attending a function to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between France and China. His speech noted that “firstly, this missile carried an inert warhead, that is to say without explosives. Then it fell into the international waters of the Pacific Ocean. Finally, the Chinese authorities had previously notified this test to their French counterparts, who will not fail, if necessary, to make their position known when the time comes”.
During his visit to Vanuatu in July last year, French President Emanuel Macron criticised the United States and China, arguing that there was a “new imperialism appearing, and a power logic that is threatening the sovereignty of several states – the smallest, often the most fragile”. In reality, Paris is reluctant to side with Pacific Island states on questions of nuclear disarmament – after the TPNW was endorsed by a unanimous resolution from the Assembly of French Polynesia in September 2023, France again expressed its refusal to sign the nuclear ban treaty.
Last year, just three days before Christmas, Kiribati and Kazakhstan successfully introduced a resolution at the UN General Assembly on assistance to nuclear survivors and remediation of nuclear test sites. The resolution was passed with overwhelming support, in a 161 – 4 – 6 vote. Five nuclear weapons states (United States, China, Israel, India and Pakistan) abstained. However, France and the United Kingdom voted with Russia and North Korea as the only four nations in the world to oppose the resolution!
US allies like Australia and New Zealand also expressed concern over China’s action. NZ Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters described the test an “unwelcome and concerning development”, and a spokesperson for the Albanese government said that “Australia is concerned by any action that is destabilising and raises the risk of miscalculation in the region, and is consulting regional partners about this launch. The launch comes in the context of China’s rapid military build-up, which is taking place without the transparency and reassurance that the region looks for from great powers”.
It’s noticeable, however, that the first Chinese test into the South Pacific in 44 years received much more attention and criticism than regular and ongoing US missile testing into the Marshall Islands. There was also no mention in media reports that the United States remains the only major nuclear weapons state that has refused to ratify the three protocols of the SPNFZ treaty.
Kwajalein missile range
The United States operates the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site on the US Army Garrison-Kwajalein Atoll, under an agreement with Marshall Islands that lasts until 2066, with an option to renew for another 20 years.
Last June, the US conducted two missile tests in a week, firing unarmed Minuteman III ICBMs from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California to the test range at Kwajalein Atoll (similar operational launches, known as Glory Tests, are conducted every year). A previous Minuteman test failed on 1 November 2023, as the US Strategic Command had to destroy the ICBM during its flight over the Pacific Ocean “due to an anomaly” during the test.
Along with US military bases in Guam and Hawai’i, Kwajalein atoll is a crucial installation for US nuclear war fighting strategy. General Anthony Cotton, commander of US Strategic Command, witnessed the first of the two ICBM tests last June and said, “simply put, the mission of Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site cannot be completed anywhere else on Earth”.
Islands dotted around Kwajalein Atoll serve multiple purposes. Roi-Namur houses advanced radar systems to track the exact splashdown of unarmed warheads into Kwajalein lagoon – vital knowledge for a precise nuclear attack. An anti-ballistic missile launch site is located on Meck Island, while Gagan and Gellinam islands are equipped with launch facilities to fire various types of missiles and rockets (test missiles fired towards Hawai’i can be shot down by US naval vessels equipped with Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense systems).
The United States continually tests the missiles that carry its strategic nuclear weapons, including land based ICBMs; Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) from Trident submarines; and nuclear-capable B-52 H bombers, which rotate through US air bases in Guam, Japan and northern Australia. Fearing an overwhelming US first strike using these nuclear platforms, China is rapidly expanding the number of silos capable of firing its new long-range nuclear armed missiles, with construction of an estimated 300 extra ICBM silos at three missile fields (Ordos, Hami and Yumen).
However, the buildup of nuclear arsenals and missile networks by both Beijing and Washington is creating a vicious cycle of escalation, which contributes to militarisation of Pacific Island nations, especially in Micronesia.
The US Defence Department is planning a “360-degree integrated missile defence system” to be operated from as many as 20 different sites across Guam. An August 2024 report from the US Defence Threat Reduction Agency suggested that in a conflict over Taiwan, “Beijing will consider attacking the broader US base infrastructure supporting continued US operations in the Western Pacific. For these bases, China will likely make a distinction between a base located on a US territory – such as Andersen Air Force Base (AFB), Guam and striking Hawai’i. Beijing probably calculates an attack on Guam will resonate less with US policymakers and the US public than an attack on a US state. It may assess, for example, that it can strike Andersen AFB with capabilities such as DF-26s – disrupting or even suspending air sorties from this vital base – without necessarily engendering an overwhelming US response”.
In response, the US military are currently building new airstrips and logistic facilities across Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, to allow rapid dispersal of US forces from military bases on Guam to other sites.
In January 2018, then-US President Donald Trump denounced North Korea’s Kim Jong-un as “little rocket man”, tweeting that, “I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”
As we head towards the US presidential elections in November, this macho posturing is diverting human, technical and financial resources away from the greatest security threat facing the islands region: climate change. As nuclear weapons states increase their nuclear sabre rattling, the Pacific’s call for disarmament and climate action will need to be ramped up in coming months.
