In this bulletin:
1. PACIFIC — Sea level rise is locked in, UN overshoot pathway too late for the Pacific
2. FIJI — Fiji declares HIV outbreak a national crisis
3. VAN — Vanuatu pardon administration review report launched
4. FIJI — Fiji cannot take Australia to court under new treaty, MPs hear
5. TAIWAN — Lai welcomes new Palau envoy, thanks ally for international support
6. PACIFIC — China urges practical police cooperation with Pacific Islands
7. PACNEWS BIZ — Pacific urges unity as IMO shipping emissions talks continue
8. PACNEWS BIZ — El Niño to outlast 2026 as Pacific drought and flood risk mounts
9. PACNEWS IN FOCUS — What 1.5°C Overshoot means for Small Islands
10. PACNEWS DIGEST — Australia renews flexible core support, reaffirming Partnership with UNDP to sustain delivery
11. PACNEWS DIGEST — Pacific partners launch new Action Plan to accelerate health and climate action
PAC – SEA LEVEL RISE: PACNEWS PACNEWS 2: Thu 10 Sep 2026
Sea level rise is locked in, UN overshoot pathway too late for the Pacific
By Elenoa Masi
NUKU’ALOFA, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (PACNEWS)—The United Nations has suggested a pathway to manage global warming, which is now predicted to breach the 1.5 degrees target in a few years but it’s too late for the Pacific, the seas will still flood our homes.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Limiting Overshoot report on 02 September, the first time it admits that the world will exceed the 1.5°C ceiling set in the COP 21 agreement in Paris ten years ago.
For the Pacific, that admission lands hard.
“This is alarming news for Pacific Island countries, which are amongst the most exposed to the consequences of overshooting over 1.5 degree,” Secretariat of the Pacific Community Team Leader Ocean Prediction and Monitoring, Herve Damlamian said at a media masterclass in Tonga ahead of the Pacific Meteorological Council meeting this week.
“Reducing emissions is essential, but it will not stop sea-level rise. Some rise is already locked in and will continue for centuries. For Pacific Island countries, adaptation is no longer optional. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters because it slows sea-level rise and reduces how much future generations will face,” he added.
The UNEP report lists five points to understand about the “overshoot”. Firstly, the pathway is a curve with four stages- exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius, peaking ideally under 2 degrees Celsius before it declines and stabilises at 1.5 degrees.
“We have to make overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at the report’s release.
Secondly, going above 1.5°C must not mean abandoning it.
“Decisions, science and, most importantly, mindsets need to shift to seeing 1.5°C as a goal we’ll be approaching from above rather than below,” says Mirey Atallah, Chief of UNEP’s Adaptation and Resilience Branch and coordinator of the report.
“This is the starting point for realising just how imperative it is to massively reduce emissions and minimise the severity of the overshoot pathway we’re on.”
Thirdly, adaptation and mitigation must move together and should no longer be in “separate buckets” of action. If countries adapt now, they can continue to cut emissions, but if the cuts fall short, they probably will not be able to adapt to future conditions.
Fourthly, carbon removal is necessary but not a silver bullet. Carbon removal — pulling carbon dioxide back out of the air, by planting trees or by machine — is in every pathway the report models, but it delivers only a few tenths of a degree this century and is “not a substitute for rapid emission reduction”.
Lastly, the report says that it doesn’t know what the world looks like in the future as sea level rise, cryosphere melt, extinctions, displacement, food and water systems all unfold at different speeds, so the timing and scale are open questions.
“The climate system behaves like an enormous boiler. Cutting emissions turns down the flame; reaching net-zero stops adding to the heating. But the heat already accumulated does not disappear,” says Atallah.
For the Pacific, the problem starts earlier than any of this.
Most global assessments of Pacific vulnerability to sea level rise are based on elevation data collected by satellites, which Damlamian says are incorrect.
“While satellites have revolutionised earth observation, they remain limited in providing accurate land elevation, especially in densely vegetated areas commonly found in the tropics. In many cases, they measure the tops of trees rather than the ground beneath them, resulting in large elevation errors.,” Damlamian said.
For example, on the data the international community uses, roughly 70 percent of Kiribati’s and 60 percent of Tuvalu’s populations live above five metres. Tuvalu’s actual average land elevation is 1.5 metres.
“There is a very wrong perception internationally about the vulnerability of Pacific Island communities to sea level rise,” Damlamian told the masterclass. “How can science support a community adapting to sea level rise if the data can’t tell us if the community is living with its feet in the water or on a five-meter hill?”
The mistake is bigger than the problem. The region is planning for 50 centimetres to a metre of sea level rise on maps which are three to five metres out. While overshoot didn’t cause that error, it has made it urgent.
But a fix exists, Damlamian offers.
Airborne LiDAR (laser pulses fired from an aircraft that measure the distance to the actual ground) gives accurate elevation but it is expensive, perhaps why not most of the Pacific has it.
Cook Islands has invested in it while Tonga flew its latest survey in April completing the mapping of all its low-lying islands. A paper before the Pacific Meteorological Council meeting this week asks the region to recognise the value of LiDAR for early warning of sea level rise.
Tuvalu has spent about US$2 million on LiDAR across its nine islands and has a better picture of its risks. A coastal inundation event that happens once a century today will happen once a decade by 2050 and more than once every five years by 2100.
The estimated cost from coastal flooding to government (buildings, roads and infrastructure damage) each year rises from about US$15 million now to four times that by the end of this century, about 110 percent of Tuvalu’s GDP today.
Based on these numbers Tuvalu has spent more than US$50 million on adaptation- reclaimed land raised to a height recommended by engineers, and revised national building codes keeping in mind of the risks ahead.
Citing World Bank projections, Damlamian said coastal protection is the single largest cost facing Pacific countries this century.
Without accurate elevation behind the designs, he said, “there is a big risk that all the millions of dollars that are going to be invested into this will actually be thrown into the water.” …PACNEWS
FIJI – HIV/AIDS/HEALTH: FIJI SUN PACNEWS 2: Thu 10 Sep 2026
Fiji declares HIV outbreak a national crisis
SUVA, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (FIJI SUN)—Cabinet has declared Fiji’s HIV outbreak a national crisis as new infections continue to surge, with 2,016 new diagnoses recorded last year, up from 1,583 the previous year.
Minister for Information Lynda Tabuya, speaking on behalf of Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, said the crisis required an urgent whole-of-government and whole-of-society response.
The Government declared the situation an HIV outbreak in January 2025. By the end of the year, 3,535 people were living with HIV in Fiji, with 1,979 receiving antiretroviral therapy.
More than four in 10 people newly diagnosed in 2025, however, were not yet enrolled in care.
Two-thirds of those diagnosed last year were aged between 20 and 34, according to the Ministry of Health and Medical Services.
The ministry also recorded a 45 percent increase in infections among children and teenagers aged 10 to 19.
Of the 67 children among the new cases recorded last year, 59 acquired HIV through mother-to-child transmission.
According to the ministry’s Sexual and Reproductive Health and HIV Unit, 117 people living with HIV died last year, including 17 children under the age of 15.
About 90 percent of new diagnoses were among the iTaukei population, while infections among women were also increasing.
Tabuya said Cabinet considered a response paper from the National HIV Outbreak and Cluster Response Taskforce before endorsing the declaration.
“Cabinet has endorsed declaring the HIV outbreak a national crisis. So, we are declaring it a national crisis under emergency powers,” she said.
“It is important for Fiji to respond accordingly. Government funding and support from development partners were already being directed towards the response.”
However,Tabuya said the scale of the outbreak required a broader national effort.
The Ministry of Health and Medical Services has a dedicated unit responding to the outbreak, while Cabinet is considering further measures, including safe needle and syringe exchange programmes and stronger efforts to prevent and reduce sexually transmitted infections.
Tabuya said the Ministry of Policing also needed to work closely with the Health Ministry, citing needle sharing associated with drug use as a major factor in HIV transmission.
Minister for Health Dr Ratu Atonio Lalabalavu was not present at the Cabinet meeting but said he was aware of the outbreak being declared a national crisis.
He said the declaration meant the ministry would need to “scale up” its current response….PACNEWS
VAN – PARDON REVIEW: VANUATU DAILY POST PACNEWS 2: Thu 10 Sep 2026
Vanuatu pardon administration review report launched
PORT VILA, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (VANUATU DAILY POST) —Vanuatu Minister of Justice, Job Andy, has launched a report produced by the Vanuatu Law Reform Commission (VLRC) reviewing the processes surrounding pardon administration, an issue that has raised concerns among the public.
Section 7 of the Law Reform Commission Act empowers the Commission to conduct studies and research into any matter it considers necessary. The review began in 2020 and a draft report
Principal Legal Researcher at VLRC, Gracelyn Tasso, stressed that the lack of a legal framework for presidential pardons has contributed to Vanuatu’s reputation as the “pardoning capital of the Pacific”.
“Article 38 of our Constitution gives the President power to pardon, commute, or reduce a sentence imposed on a convicted person. This is not unique to Vanuatu — it is a power held by kings, governors-general, and presidents in every corner of the world. What is unique to us is this: we have never had a legislative framework governing how that power is exercised,” she said.
“No clear criteria. No defined procedure. No accountability mechanism.
“Over the years, this gap has produced real consequences, perceptions of inconsistency, of arbitrariness, and at times, of political influence. We have unfortunately, become known in some circles as the ‘pardoning capital of the Pacific’. This is a reputation we can and must change.”
VLRC began reviewing the pardon system in 2020, completed a draft report in 2023 and sought feedback from the State House.
“We continued to make efforts to liaise with the Office of the President. Some two or three years ago, there was an intention by the current President to have a Presidential Administration Bill. At that time, we presented the draft report during the initial consultations. No feedback was received,” said the VLRC’s Secretary, Lawson Samuel.
“Last year, there was the attempted committal of sentences and this year the pardon issued on July 23. The same story continues as we were once known as the pardoning capital of the Pacific.”
Based on the concerns raised during consultations across all six provinces, the Commission recommends the enactment of a new Pardon Administration Act, legislation to provide the procedure, criteria, and conditions to guide the President in exercising the pardoning power.
Principal Legal Researcher Tasso explained that a new Pardon Advisory Committee is needed to provide independent, informed recommendations on every application, strengthening the process without removing the President’s final discretion.
Under the proposed Act, pardons would be granted on limited grounds, including wrongful conviction, serious health conditions, advanced age, humanitarian circumstances, or where an offender has met parole requirements and served at least three-quarters of the total sentence.
The proposed Act would also introduce mechanisms for victims to participate in the pardon process.
Upon receiving the report, Minister Andy said it is the view of the government to establish a mechanism to facilitate the power of the President.
He announced that a Working Committee has already been appointed to have a Bill ready for Parliament as soon as possible.
“…It is also the intention of the government to amend the Constitution and I believe that the constitutional amendment will include a provision for the Advisory Committee. Once the amendment is in place, the legislative framework that we are developing will be the icing of the amendment. This legislative framework that we are putting in place will work with the Constitutional Amendment,” he said.
The Director of Correctional Services was appointed Chairman of the Working Committee and a representative from VLRC as Secretary. Other members include the State House, Public Solicitor, Public Prosecutor, VCC, Malvatumauri Council of Chiefs and Women’s Centre….PACNEWS
FIJI – DIPLOMACY/POLITICS: FIJI SUN PACNEWS 2: Thu 10 Sep 2026
Fiji cannot take Australia to court under new treaty, MPs hear
SUVA, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 ( FIJI SUN)—Fiji cannot take Australia to a national or international court or tribunal if a dispute arises under the new Vuvale Union and Veitacini Treaty, MPs heard Wednesday.
The issue sparked sharp exchanges over sovereignty and consultation during a hearing of Parliament’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Opposition MP Virendra Lal questioned Article 11(1) of the Veitacini Treaty, which states that disputes “shall not be referred to any national or international tribunal or court”.
“So in this case, if there is a breach by either side, what diplomatic remedies does the ministry have?” Mr Lal asked.
“We cannot take it to national or international court, so how do you settle the dispute there?”
Acting Deputy Secretary for Foreign Affairs Anare Leweniqila said the treaty’s dispute mechanism instead gives either party “the right to withdraw” if it believes the other side is not honouring its obligations.
The hearing also saw questions over the consultation process for the treaties.
Deputy chairperson Rinesh Sharma accused the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of relying on Fiji’s National Development Plan when explaining how public consultation had been conducted.
“I disagree. You cannot throw it under the consultations of the national development plan… this is about the sovereignty of Fiji,” he said.
Sharma also questioned Fiji’s “friends to all, enemies to none” foreign policy, asking whether it was “foreign policy or hypocrisy” given Fiji’s voting record at the United Nations on sensitive resolutions.
Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs Rejieli Taga said Fiji’s sovereignty “is respected in this union” and the country remained “free to question Australia” on any matter, including climate emissions.
Committee chairperson Lenora Qereqeretabua also revealed that the 10-year work plan underpinning the treaties remained in draft form, with no timeline for its release…..PACNEWS
TAIWAN – DIPLOMACY: CNA PACNEWS 2: Thu 10 Sep 2026
Lai welcomes new Palau envoy, thanks ally for international support
TAIPEI, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (CNA)—President William Lai has thanked Palau for its continued support for Taiwan’s international participation amid changing geopolitical circumstances as he received the credentials of the Pacific ally’s new ambassador to Taiwan at a ceremony in Taipei.
Palau is one of the Republic of China’s (Taiwan’s official name) 12 diplomatic allies and one of three in the Pacific.
Speaking at the Presidential Office, Lai said Palau has consistently voiced support for Taiwan at international forums, including the Pacific Islands Forum, the United Nations General Assembly and the World Health Assembly.
Palau has steadfastly supported Taiwan’s international participation amid shifts in the regional and geopolitical landscape, Lai said, adding that the friendship had brought “great warmth” to Taiwan.
Lai made the remarks after accepting the credentials of Gaafar Uherbelau, Palau’s new ambassador to Taiwan.
The president said Uherbelau had long been highly regarded by the Palauan government, having served in senior roles including health minister and presidential health adviser.
His appointment as Ambassador to Taiwan by President Surangel Whipps Jr. further demonstrated the “importance attached to and expectations for” bilateral ties, Lai said.
He also noted that Taiwan-Palau ties had grown increasingly close over the past two years, citing his visit to Palau after taking office in May 2024, Whipps’ visit to Taiwan last year, and Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s trip to Palau in June this year.
Lai said he hoped the two countries would “continue to support each other internationally,” deepen exchanges and cooperation across various fields, and contribute to the development of both countries and the Indo-Pacific region.
In his remarks, Uherbelau said Taiwan-Palau ties dated back to 1984, when Taiwan sent its first technical mission to Palau to help address food production challenges, 15 years before the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1999.
“As members of the broader Austronesian family, Palau and Taiwan share ancestral connections,” he said, highlighting existing bilateral cooperation in areas including education, health care and technical assistance.
Beginning his tenure as ambassador, Uherbelau pledged to strengthen bilateral cooperation, expand opportunities for people in both countries and “uphold the shared values that continue to unite our two nations.”…PACNEWS
PAC – DIPLOMACY: XINHUA PACNEWS 2: Thu 10 Sep 2026
China urges practical police cooperation with Pacific Islands
BEIJING, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (XINHUA) – China is willing to work with Pacific Island countries to deepen the ministerial-level dialogue mechanism on police capacity building and cooperation, and strive to achieve more practical results, Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong said Tuesday this week.
Wang made the remarks while delivering a speech at the fifth ministerial dialogue on police capacity building and cooperation between China and the Pacific Island countries in Beijing.
Since the establishment of the ministerial dialogue mechanism, Wang said, the foundation of mutual trust between China and Pacific Island countries has grown stronger.
Training and exchanges have deepened and solidified, law enforcement cooperation has been practical and effective, and police authorities have built closer bonds and greater mutual understanding. This has played a positive role in promoting regional prosperity, stability and development.
Wang said that China stands ready to work with all parties to earnestly implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of China and Pacific Island countries, actively practice the four major global initiatives, adhere to openness and inclusiveness, strengthen multilateral cooperation, and make greater contributions to building a China-Pacific Island countries community with a shared future.
Wang and Vanuatu’s Minister of Internal Affairs Andrew Napuat co-chaired the ministerial dialogue.
On the same day, Wang met separately with International Criminal Police Organisation (Interpol) President Lucas Philippe, Interpol Secretary General Valdecy Urquiza, and Andrew Napuat…..PACNEWS
PACNEWS BIZ
PAC – SHIPPING: PACNEWS PACNEWS BIZ: Thu 10 Sep 2026
Pacific urges unity as IMO shipping emissions talks continue
LONDON, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (PACNEWS)—The Pacific is calling for continued unity and strategic engagement in global shipping emissions negotiations as countries prepare for the next round of talks on the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework.
The call follows the conclusion of the 22nd session of the IMO’s Intersessional Working Group on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG 22) in London last week.
The Micronesian Centre for Sustainable Transport (MCST) said the negotiations are critical for Pacific countries because the outcome will have direct implications for their islands, oceans and communities.
“For the Pacific, these negotiations are about more than regulations — they are about our islands, our oceans, our people and our future,” MCST said in a statement.
The centre said continued strategic engagement, diplomacy and Pacific unity would be critical as negotiations move towards ISWG-GHG 23 and the 85th session of the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 85).
MCST said it was proud to support the 6PAC+ delegation during ISWG-GHG 22, providing technical, communications and coordination support.
The centre said the work would continue as Pacific countries remain engaged in the negotiations.
“The Pacific remains engaged, united and determined
“We will come out stronger,” MCST said.
MCST said the Pacific’s position was grounded in a shared ambition to secure outcomes that reflect the interests of Pacific island countries.
“One Pacific. One voice. One shared ambition,” it said.
The IMO negotiations are focused on developing a global framework to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping, with the Pacific pushing for its interests and priorities to remain central to the process.
The next stages of the negotiations will provide another opportunity for Pacific countries to coordinate their positions and strengthen their engagement in the global shipping emissions process…PACNEWS
PAC – DROUGHT INSURANCE: INSURANCE BUSINESS PACNEWS BIZ: Thu 10 Sep 2026
El Niño to outlast 2026 as Pacific drought and flood risk mounts
WELLINGTON, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (INSURANCE BUSINESS)—New Zealand brokers have a narrowing window to review client cover – and the science says conditions will keep deteriorating.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed in its latest update that an intensifying El Niño is already generating droughts and floods across the Pacific. The weather event is expected to peak towards the end of 2026 and continue well into 2027.
That extended timeline carries consequences for brokers managing weather-exposed client portfolios across New Zealand and the wider Pacific.
Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) declared the current El Niño on 02 July 2026, classifying it as “very strong” – defined as sea surface temperatures running 2°C or more above the usual average in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific. Spring 2026 is expected to be drier than normal for northern and eastern parts of both islands, with the greatest odds for dryness over northern and eastern parts of the North Island.
An active, stormy spring is expected for the western and lower South Island, driven by frequent fronts and low-pressure systems. At times, strong wind will drive unusually warm weather, with eastern parts of both islands likely to see spikes in high temperatures – which, combined with dryness, will result in increased wildfire risk. Canterbury, Otago, and Marlborough are identified as regions of particular concern. A return to neutral conditions is not expected before April to May 2027.
For brokers, that duration matters. An El Niño running across two full policy years creates compounding exposure that event-by-event modelling does not readily capture. What does sustained dryness do to agricultural clients’ sum insured assumptions? Are clients in eastern regions adequately covered for wildfire as conditions worsen?
The El Niño forecast arrives against a backdrop of elevated weather-related losses. IAG’s Wild Weather Tracker for the 12 months to the end of February 2026 recorded 46 storms, up from 29 the previous year, and 33,174 storm-related claims across IAG brands – a 256 percent year-on-year increase from 9,324 claims. One in every eight days experienced a damaging storm, compared with one in 19 days over the previous 15 years.
New Zealand experienced three notable natural hazard events in 2025, resulting in approximately $120 million (US$70 million) in insured losses – two severe convective storms (SCS) and Ex-Cyclone Tam in April, according to Aon’s 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight report.
“From a New Zealand perspective, the past two years have been relatively benign in terms of insured losses. That context reinforces the importance of preparedness as global loss volatility continues,” said James Knight, head of Asia-Pacific view of risk advisory for Aon.
That context matters heading into an El Niño cycle. The cost baseline extends beyond discrete events. Research commissioned by the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission – published in July 2026 by Earth Sciences New Zealand – found that under 2025 conditions, total annual inland flooding costs were already estimated at an average $471.9 million (US$275.56 million), covering private buildings, water infrastructure, local roads, and central roads.
Under a high-emissions scenario, annual inland flood damage to infrastructure alone is projected to grow from around $300 million (US$175 million) in 2025 to $465 million (US$271 million) by 2075, with coastal flooding losses expected to nearly double from $165 million (US$96 million) to $325 million (US$189 million) over the same period. That trajectory directly shapes how brokers should frame long-term risk conversations with clients in flood-exposed areas.
The Insurance Council of New Zealand (ICNZ) has been direct about what the claims trajectory means for the market.
“The commission’s message is clear. New Zealand must act to get ahead of growing climate risk,” ICNZ chief executive Kris Faafoi said in May 2026, responding to the Climate Change Commission’s 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment.
ICNZ polling found 87 percent of New Zealanders support taking action before disaster strikes to protect communities from natural hazards.
Faafoi has also flagged the market-level consequence of inaction: without investment in adaptation, the affordability and availability of cover are at risk – a direct concern for brokers trying to maintain access to insurance for clients in high-exposure areas.
The WMO’s warning extends beyond New Zealand’s coastline. Several Pacific nations are already experiencing severe drought conditions, with smoke from Indonesian forest fires crossing into Papua New Guinea and Malaysia.
The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company (PCRIC) has already activated drought payouts for Tonga this year. Tonga received a TOP$114,168(US$47, 990) parametric insurance payout from PCRIC to support early drought preparedness in the Niuas following below-average rainfall recorded in May 2026 – the second payout triggered under Tonga’s drought policy, according to Talanoa o Tonga.
Tuvalu and the Republic of the Marshall Islands have declared states of emergency, and for the first time since COVID, the Pacific Islands Forum has invoked the region’s emergency response mechanism in anticipation of a crisis, according to the Council on Strategic Risks.
For New Zealand brokers with clients operating across the Pacific – in trade, logistics, agriculture, and development – these are live exposures, not a future scenario.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres framed the risk plainly: “The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
The practical implication is client-level and immediate. The elevated loss environment could affect premiums even for businesses with no recent claims history, as insurance markets respond to a global weather trend rather than individual loss performance.
Clients who have not reviewed agricultural cover, business interruption limits, or wildfire exposure since the last significant El Niño cycle may be carrying gaps they are not aware of.
Earth Sciences New Zealand publishes monthly Seasonal Climate Outlook updates as the event develops. Each release covers regional rainfall and temperature probabilities – a ready-made checklist brokers can use to track which client segments face the most acute conditions in the months ahead……PACNEWS
PACNEWS In Focus
The views expressed in PACNEWS are those of agencies contributing articles and do not necessarily those of PINA and/or PACNEWS
What 1.5°C Overshoot means for Small Islands
By Alison Kentish
CASTRIES, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (IPS)— The world is now expected to breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit that small island states have spent years defending as a threshold for survival.
For people in the Caribbean, Pacific and Indian Ocean, the consequences will not begin only when islands disappear beneath the sea. They include saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies and agricultural land, coral reef loss, more damaging coastal flooding and mounting pressure on already limited resources for recovery and adaptation.
That is the stark warning emerging from the United Nations Environment Programme’s Limiting Overshoot report, launched on 02 September. The report examines a future in which average global temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before, potentially, being brought back down.
The report concludes that the world is now expected to cross the 1.5°C threshold. What is still uncertain is how far above it temperatures will rise, how long they will remain there and how quickly they can eventually be brought back down.
Dr Shobha Maharaj, a Caribbean scientist and one of the lead authors of the report’s Chapter Four, says the expected breach raises a new set of questions for small island states.
“For years, the goal was to avoid crossing 1.5°C. But this report now says very clearly that we are going to cross it,” she said. “The question now is how deep is this overshoot going to go? How long is it going to last? And how do we live through it while we work to bring temperatures back down to 1.5°C?”
No buffer
The Paris Agreement committed countries to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Small island states were among the strongest advocates for the 1.5°C target, arguing that higher levels of warming would pose an existential threat.
“For small islands, it is because we live closest to the thresholds,” Maharaj said.
“In a wealthy, temperate country, an additional half-degree of warming would still carry serious costs. But on a small island, it could determine whether a reef recovers or not, or whether an aquifer stays fresh or turns salty for good.”
“There is no higher ground to move to, no deep treasury to draw on and no second reef when one of them dies,” she added.
The danger is not limited to dramatic disasters, she said. Habitability can erode quietly.
“Saltwater can contaminate groundwater and soil. A kitchen garden that has fed a family for generations may stop producing. High tides can reach roads, homes and public infrastructure even on clear days. When reefs die, communities lose not only fish and tourism income but also natural barriers that weaken waves before they reach the shore.”
“None of this requires an island to vanish,” Maharaj said.
“Habitability begins to collapse first, quietly, through water, food and the loss of the everyday things that make a place home. By the time submergence becomes the headline, people have often already been forced to leave.”
The report warns that sea-level rise will continue for centuries and that falling global temperatures would not reverse all the damage accumulated during overshoot. Some ecosystem, biodiversity and glacier losses would persist, meaning a return to 1.5°C would not restore the world that existed before the threshold was crossed.
Small Islands, Different Realities
SIDS are often discussed as a single group, but Maharaj cautioned that their circumstances and options differ.
Pacific atoll states face acute threats because of their extremely low elevation and vulnerable freshwater lenses. Some Pacific islands are also experiencing land subsidence, compounding the effects of rising seas.
Several Caribbean states have higher terrain, but much of their population, infrastructure and economic activity is concentrated along narrow coastal areas. Indian Ocean states face their own combination of risks.
“What we share is a structural predicament, narrow room for retreat, limited finances and economies that are exposed to single shocks,” Maharaj said.
But she warned against transferring solutions indiscriminately between regions.
“The right response in Tuvalu, for example, is not automatically the right response in Barbados or the Maldives.”
Adaptation Buys Time, Not Immunity
For decades, adaptation has been presented as the principal defence for countries already living with climate impacts. But the UNEP report says many existing approaches were designed for gradual, one-directional warming, not temperatures that rise, plateau and may eventually decline.
Strategies fixed to one set of conditions could become ineffective or even increase vulnerability as conditions change. The report calls instead for adaptation that is flexible, forward-looking and capable of evolving throughout the different stages of overshoot.
“Adaptation buys time, not immunity,” Maharaj said.
She said the large gap between adaptation planning and implementation may provide a narrow opportunity to revise projects before they are built for conditions they can no longer withstand.
“We have a lot of plans, but many of them have not yet been implemented,” she said.
“That gives us a window, although not a large one, to recalibrate those plans for a post-1.5°C world.”
That shift will require money before disasters strike.
Many developing countries are already trying to adapt, recover from extreme events, transform their economies and reduce emissions while servicing heavy debt. Climate finance, Maharaj said, arrives too slowly and is often supplied through loans that add to that burden.
“A disaster drains public funds into emergency response and reconstruction. That leaves less money to reduce the risks posed by the next event, which then hits a weakened country even harder. Each turn of that wheel reduces the very capacity we need to climb out of it.”
Breaking the cycle will require grants, upfront financing and investment in prevention, rather than repeatedly paying to rebuild after losses.
A Deeper Injustice
Overshoot also raises questions of climate justice, particularly for countries with little historical responsibility for the emissions driving warming.
“The harms concentrated during this period, especially those that turn out to be irreversible, fall hardest on the countries least responsible for the emissions that caused them,” Maharaj said.
Maharaj said contributing to the report carried a particular weight for her as a Caribbean scientist.
“For those of us from these islands, 1.5°C was never simply a number on a chart. It was the line we were told represented survival. It was the line at which we were told survival was still possible,” she said.
“Now, helping to write the science of what lies beyond that line is a heavy thing, both personally and professionally.”
Crossing 1.5°C, she said, represents “a profound failure of collective will” but not permission to give up.
“How high the peak rises, how long we remain there and how quickly temperatures are brought back down are all still ours to decide,” Maharaj said.
“Every one of those choices will be measured in lives and livelihoods here in our region and across small islands.”
For small islands, limiting the overshoot could mean the difference between mounting losses and holding on to the places people call home…..PACNEWS
The views expressed in PACNEWS are those of agencies contributing articles and do not necessarily those of PINA and/or PACNEWS
Australia renews flexible core support, reaffirming Partnership with UNDP to sustain delivery
NEW YORK, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (UNDP)—- The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) welcomes the Government of Australia’s decision, confirmed in its 2026-2027 budget, to reinstate its core contribution to UNDP for 2026 at AUD$10 million (approximately USD$ 7.2 million).
The renewed support follows a pause in core funding in 2025 and reflects a strong vote of confidence in UNDP’s work and the long-standing partnership with Australia. This flexible funding is particularly vital for sustaining UNDP’s presence and delivery for the most vulnerable, including across the Pacific.
Core resources are the most flexible funding UNDP receives, enabling the organisation to respond quickly to emerging crises, sustain long-term development gains, and reach those furthest behind. This support is especially critical for Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, countries where core funding underpins UNDP’s continued presence and its ability to deliver results, particularly in the most remote and hard-to-reach communities.
Australia’s support to core will continue to be supplemented by significant earmarked investments, particularly in the Pacific, strengthening resilience, addressing climate change, building inclusive growth, jobs and skills, and advancing gender equality.
Through its partnership with Australia and other partners, UNDP continues to support Pacific Island and Least Developed countries in confronting climate risks, strengthening electoral and governance systems, and advancing peace and resilience.
A key example is the flagship Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project, which is helping fortify eroding coastline and reclaim land, reducing inundation risks for over 60 percent of the population and creating safer areas for homes and public infrastructure.
UNDP also strengthens electoral processes across the Pacific and beyond, supporting milestones such as Vanuatu’s first National Referendum, the introduction of new voter registration systems in Vanuatu and the Republic of Naoero, and the delivery of a peaceful electoral process in Bangladesh. Women’s economic empowerment in the Pacific advanced as the Fiji Development Bank’s UNDP-supported Blue Lending Facility unlocked concessional finance, enabling women-led groups and coastal women entrepreneurs to access climate-resilient blue economy opportunities and improve their financial inclusion.
UNDP remains the largest UN entity operating in the Pacific, and recent independent research (ODI perception study) ranks UNDP as the highest-valued UN development partner among Pacific Small Island Developing States.
UNDP looks forward to continuing a close collaboration with Australia and to working together toward a more equitable and prosperous world, where no one is left behind….PACNEWS
For more information about UNDP’s partners, please visit: https://www.undp.org/our-partners
PACNEWS DIGEST
The views expressed in PACNEWS are those of agencies contributing articles and do not necessarily those of PINA and/or PACNEWS
Pacific partners launch new Action Plan to accelerate health and climate action
NADI, 10 SEPTEMBER 2026 (WHO/SPREP/SPC) —Pacific health and climate leaders launched the Pacific Network for Health and Climate Change Action Plan 2026–2028, setting out a shared framework to accelerate action to protect the health and wellbeing of more than 14 million people living in the Pacific, including Papua New Guinea, from the impacts of climate change.
The Action Plan was launched at the second Pacific Conference on Health and Climate Change, being held in Nadi, Fiji, from 9–11 September.
The conference, co-organised by the Pacific Community (SPC), the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the World Health Organisation (WHO), brings together around 65 regional leaders, climate and health experts, partners, researchers and civil society to shape the next phase of health and climate action in the Pacific.
Climate change is worsening existing public health challenges.
Rising temperatures, extreme weather events like floods and cyclones, water insecurity, and climate-sensitive diseases are increasingly threatening the health and wellbeing of Pacific communities.
Climate change also causes damage to health facilities and infrastructure, disrupts essential health services and places additional pressures on communities and health workers.
For Pacific island countries and areas, addressing these risks requires strong health systems, coordinated action across sectors, and sustained investment in climate resilience that benefits health.
Across the region, countries are strengthening disease surveillance systems, undertaking climate and health vulnerability assessments, investing in resilient health facilities, expanding renewable energy solutions, building workforce capacity on climate and health, and integrating climate considerations into health planning by developing national health adaptation plans.
The new Action Plan provides a platform for Pacific countries to collectively strengthen this important work across 6 priority areas:
*leadership and governance;
* collaboration, coordination and networking;
*capacity building;
* monitoring, research and data sharing;
*climate financing for health; and
* public awareness and engagement.
The Action Plan was developed through a consultative process led by the Pacific Network for Health and Climate Change.
The network was formally endorsed at the Pacific Heads of Health Meeting in 2024 and is tasked with advancing collective Pacific wide coordinated and accelerated health and climate action.
The process to develop the Action Plan has emphasised country leadership and ownership, ensuring that the Action Plan reflects national priorities while leveraging regional and partner support.
Strengthening the Pacific voice ahead of COP31
The Pacific Conference on Health and Climate Change comes at an important time for global climate and health action, with the Pacific preparing to play a critical role in discussions leading up to COP31, including through the role Tuvalu and Fiji will play as hosts for the pre-COP31 dialogue.
The conference provides an opportunity for Pacific countries and partners to consolidate regional priorities and develop an outcome statement that can help inform health and climate discussions at Pre-COP31 and COP31.
With the Action Plan now launched, the Pacific is strengthening its collective platform to ensure that health remains central to climate action and that Pacific priorities and experiences continue to inform regional and global climate discussions.
United Nations Resident Coordinator in Fiji, Dirk Wagener said: “Climate and health policy can no longer be pursued separately. For the Pacific, investing in resilient infrastructure, reliable water and energy systems, climate-informed surveillance, early warning, and a well-prepared health workforce is not optional. It is essential.”
Fiji Assistant Minister for Health and Medical Services, Penioni Ravunawa said: “The Pacific is not only calling for climate action – we are already delivering it. The Pacific Network for Health and Climate Change Action Plan demonstrates the leadership of Pacific countries and partners in protecting the health and wellbeing of our people in a changing climate.”
“This conference gives us an important opportunity to bring together our shared Pacific priorities and ensure that our voices and lived realities are reflected in the global climate discussions at the Pacific Pre-COP31 and COP31.”
Cook Islands Secretary of Health, Bob Williams said:“The Pacific Network for Health and Climate Change Action Plan is an important commitment to turning our shared priorities into practical action.”
“Our response requires collective action and strong Pacific leadership – this Action Plan prioritises both, ensuring we work together to safeguard the health and wellbeing of our people and our future.”
WHO Representative to the South Pacific and the Director of Pacific Technical Support, Dr Mark Jacobs said: “The Pacific is showing that climate and health action can be practical, locally led and grounded in the realities of communities. This should give us confidence that despite the huge challenges countries face, guided by the Action Plan, much can be done to further protect the health of people in the Pacific.”
Pacific Community (SPC) Director of the Public Health Division, Dr Berlin Kafoa said: “Climate change is one of the greatest health challenges facing the Pacific, but it is also an opportunity to strengthen our health systems and build more resilient communities.”
“This Action Plan provides a practical roadmap for countries and partners to work together, share knowledge and accelerate action that protects the health and wellbeing of Pacific people now and for future generations.”
Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) Director of Climate Change Resilience, Tagaloa Cooper said: “Through PAVE-Health, SPREP is working with Pacific countries and regional partners to translate evidence into practical, country-led action that strengthens climate-resilient health systems.”
“The Pacific Conference on Health and Climate Change provides an important platform to bring these national experiences together, amplify a unified Pacific voice, and ensure that health remains central to the region’s priorities and advocacy in the lead-up to COP31.”
“SPREP is committed to supporting Pacific leadership and ensuring our communities’ realities, knowledge and solutions help shape global climate action.”….PACNEWS
