What next after Blinken visit?
By Sahana Sen
After a 38-year break from Fiji and a 10-year break from the Pacific, a United States Secretary of State has visited the region, committing to “a free and open Pacific” with promises to “respect core international principles”, as the U.S. re-engages with the region as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy.
In a highly stage managed seven-hour visit to Fiji last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Fiji’s Acting Prime Minister Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum and a group of Pacific Leaders (virtually), for discussions on U.S.-Pacific and Fiji relations.
On the table was building resilience, given the impact of climate change and natural disasters in the region, a response to the shared challenges of COVID-19 and economic recovery, illegal fishing and patrolling of borders, and a strengthening of democratic ideals.
While Secretary Blinken told a media conference that security wasn’t his country’s only concern in visiting the Pacific, the expanded U.S. presence is undoubtedly a result of geopolitical competition in the region, with the U.S. and its allies concerned about China’s encroachment and influence on certain Pacific Island states.
“The PRC is combining its economic, diplomatic, military and technological might as it pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to become the world’s most influential power” states the Indo Pacific Strategy. It adds that while China’s “coercion” spans across the globe, “it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific.” The strategy notes that, the U.S.’s “objective is not to change the PRC”, but to “shape the strategic environment in which it operates,” while managing the competition with China “responsibly.” American strategy it promises, will be “principled, long term, and anchored in democratic resilience.”
The strategy’s Pacific references include commitments to shared work on climate resilience through the Pacific Region Infrastructure Facility, infrastructure, transport, maritime security and finalisation of the Compact of Free Association agreements with the Freely Associated States.
In all likelihood, the pledges of increased regional security exercises to “deepen integrated deterrence”, will translate to an amplified presence of U.S. defence and naval personnel working with “regional forces” in Pacific Island territories on U.S. terms, unless Pacific leaders take a hold of the Pacific/U.S. security agenda and articulate their wishes much more clearly.
A potential point of contention with the U.S. is likely to be the Pacific’s position on keeping the region nuclear-free. Pacific nations together with New Zealand, are signatories to the Treaty of Rarotonga, the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty that came into force in 1986 and commits the region to remain nuclear free, be it in the manufacture, testing of weapons or shipment of nuclear waste.
Pacific Island leadership remains outside of AUKUS discussions; a trilateral security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the U.S., announced in September last year. On signing the security pact, Australia revealed plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines – as well as closer cooperation between the three allies on artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems, and long-range strike capabilities. Its impact on the wider Pacific is yet to be discussed with, or by Forum Island leaders, or the QUAD or AUKUS membership formally.
Secretary Blinken’s Quad meeting with Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne, Japan and India prior to arriving in Fiji also included concerns over China, although worries further afield in North Korea and Ukraine were also a focus.
Building a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, and defending it with democratic institutions, with transparency, with a commitment to a shared rules-based order, and with new approaches to economic integration, were also discussed at the Nadi meetings. The only mention however, of the region’s mantra of a “Blue Pacific”, came from Fiji’s Acting PM and Forum Chair, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, who spoke of “America being uniquely positioned to be a direct partner to Fiji” for “peace and climate security, not only across the Indo-Pacific but in the blue Pacific as well.”
The Blue Pacific agenda references Pacific nations’ aspirations to strengthen collective action as ‘one Pacific continent’, with the Blue Pacific at the centre of regional policy making processes. It is this large collective voice that gives the Pacific a stronger and resonant voice within the UN system for instance, and makes the Pacific bloc important to lobbyists and those vying for seats on the UN’s various Councils.
Interestingly, while the official joint press statement by Secretary Blinken and Fiji’s Acting Prime Minister referred to their discussions with Pacific Leaders as a meeting with the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), its Secretary General (who was attending an oceans conference at the time, see page 32) was not invited to the meeting, nor were any of his senior staff in attendance. A bizarre diplomatic oversight, said one insider at the Forum, as Secretary Blinken spoke of the importance of regional solidarity in dealing with difficult issues facing the region and “his country’s commitment to the region and PIF’s critical role in driving regional action.”
Touching on the schism at the PIF, Secretary Blinken welcomed the decision of Micronesian members to “pause their withdrawal from PIF to allow for continued discussions.” Federated States of Micronesia President, David Panuelo told the ABC they had paused the process as current PIF Chair, Fiji, has promised that Secretary General Henry Puna would step down in June. Mediation on the issue continues through a PIF’s High Level Political Dialogue (HLDP) mechanism set up by former chair and Forum Troika member, Tuvalu Prime Minister Kausea Natano. A special leaders meeting scheduled for April will further consider the issue.
The hybrid meeting organised by the United States’ Suva Embassy and co-hosted by Fiji, was attended by leaders or representatives from Palau, Marshall Islands, French Polynesia, Niue, Samoa, FSM, Solomon Islands, Nauru, Tuvalu, New Zealand Kiribati, Australia, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu and PNG.
Meanwhile, a request by Pacific Leaders at the meeting for a high level dialogue mechanism between the U.S. and the Pacific, has resulted in an announcement that U.S. President Joe Biden will host a Pacific Island Conference of Leaders in Honolulu. It is understood this meeting will be chaired by President David Panuelo of the Federated States of Micronesia.
Secretary Blinken also confirmed plans to open a U.S. embassy in the Solomon Islands to counter China’s influence in the politically troubled nation that last November saw rioting and burning return to its Chinatown. The U.S. closed its embassy there in 1993. However, this promise may take some time to fulfil; the U.S.’s Fiji and Australia permanent Ambassadors are yet to be appointed, with Republicans in Congress currently blocking appointments by the Democratic Biden administration, according to the New York Times.
Domestic issues
In Australia, Blinken met with opposition politicians, something he failed to do in Fiji. In this election year, concerns over the state of democracy in Fiji continue to loom large. While Blinken did not meet opposition MPS, he briefly met a handful of Fiji and regional civil society and community representatives, and his policy chief spent some time consulting with them.
They included the Fiji Law Society, which has been vocal in calling for accountability around rule of law issues. FLS President William Clark said they emphasised the “critical importance that respect for and upholding of the principles of the Rule of Law has in building a framework that strengthens CSOs and their capacity, as well as ensuring that those in need receive the support they require.
“The meeting was a first, but important, step in our re-engagement with the USA. I thought it went very well,” Clark said.
Pacific Community (SPC) Deputy Director-General Paula Vivili was also at the meeting. “It was an interesting experience in that we came from all different areas,” he said, “but the messages were by and large the same. So it was about meaningful engagement, responding to the needs, flexibility in terms of how you engage versus the money, resilience and security, recognising Pacific systems and Pacific ways in terms of how you do your business.
“On funding for instance, one of the things we discussed was that multilateral funding bodies, are by and large very difficult…it takes a lot to be able to go through their systems. For the U.S. to be recognising that there are existing systems within the region both from a regional perspective, but also from within bilateral opportunities.”
Soon after the Blinken visit, Cook Islands Foreign Affairs and Immigration Secretary, Tepaeru Herrmann stated: “Whilst we welcome last week’s dialogue opportunity with Blinken, the test will be what actions are taken by the U.S. in the forward months to give substance to the forward aspirations shared.”
She said the Ministry was looking forward to working with the U.S. mission to “bring some of those aspirations to fruition, particularly where there is scope for expanded bilateral cooperation,” citing in particular, Cook Islands’ hopes for the deep sea minerals sector.
The balance between national ambitions and the delicate state of regional solidarity will continue to be tested this year. Hopefully unity will prevail, giving the region a stronger voice on the world stage and at negotiations on that shared blue Pacific future, be it with the U.S. or China,or our region’s many other partners.
