By Nic Maclellan
New Caledonia’s third referendum on self-determination under the Noumea Accord has returned an overwhelming majority against independence: 96.5% of people who went to the polls voted No to independence, with only 3.5% voting Yes for an independent and sovereign nation. However, this bald figure is not a true representation of sentiment amongst New Caledonians, with tens of thousands of indigenous Kanak and other independence supporters refusing to participate in the vote on 12 December.
Turnout for the referendum nearly halved in comparison to previous votes in November 2018 and October 2020. A coalition of independence parties had called for “non-participation” in the vote, and the unified, peaceful and disciplined boycott by independence supporters creates a significant problem for France.
In a special broadcast on the night of the referendum, French President Emmanuel Macron said: “Tonight, France is more beautiful because New Caledonia has decided to stay.” But while anti-independence leaders have triumphantly welcomed the result, the outcome of the third and final referendum under the 1998 Noumea Accord is not the end of the story.
The size and strength of the “nonparticipation” movement has encouraged the leaders of the independence movement Front de Libération Nationale Kanak and Socialiste (FLNKS) and their quest for independence is undiminished. In coalition with other pro-independence parties and trade unions, the FLNKS will now wait for the election of a new French government in mid-2022, before entering negotiations on the future political status of New Caledonia.
Drop in turnout
In a rare display of unity, the independence movement formed a “Strategic Committee on Non-participation” (CSI-NP) as a coalition of political parties, trade unions and customary leaders. Even though voting is not compulsory in France, both previous referendums had seen turnout greater than 80%, so the call on independence supporters to stay away from the poll was be an indication of attitudes to independence. In response, supporters of independence – Kanak and non-Kanak – stayed at home, worked in their gardens, went to church or went fishing. Participation in this poll nearly halved compared to last year, from 85.69% in October 2020 to 43.9% on 12 December.
Based on this, the CSI-NP rejected the credibility of the vote in a statement: “Independence forces grouped under the banner of the CSI-NP do not recognise the legitimacy and validity of this ballot, which was stolen from them. This referendum is not in accordance with the spirit and the letter of the Noumea Accord, a process of decolonisation. It also fails to comply with United Nations resolutions that include New Caledonia on the list of non-self-governing territories.”
Alongside the four member parties of the FLNKS, the CSI-NP includes the smaller coalition Mouvement nationaliste pour la souveraineté de Kanaky (MNSK), the left wing Parti Travailliste (PT) and Dynamique Unitaire Sud (DUS). The trade union confederations Union Syndicale des Travailleurs Kanak et Exploités (USTKE) and Confédération Nationale des Travailleurs du Pacifique (CNTP), along with civil society groups in the Front de Luttes Sociales (FLS), are also members.
Grouped as the Les Voix du Non alliance (‘The Voices of No’), a number of conservative anti-independence parties sought to mobilise voters, especially in the Southern Province, to maintain New Caledonia within the French Republic. Before the poll, Thierry Santa, leader of the anti-independence party Rassemblement-Les Républicains told Islands Business: “Our objective – a very ambitious objective – is to maintain the same No vote that we obtained in 2020.”
Despite this, the No vote fell by 5,873 votes (from 81,503 in 2020 to 75,720 in 2021), even though there were more voters registered on the electoral roll this year. With overall participation plummeting in the North and Loyalty Islands, Les Voix du Non suggested that anti-independence supporters in Kanak tribes were intimidated. However 39% of the decline (2,257 votes) was in loyalist municipalities, with just 61% (3,616) in districts with an independence majority. Even areas in greater Noumea with a strong No vote – like Dumbea, Mont Dore and Paita – saw a significant drop in turnout.
CSI-NP scoffed at the claim of intimidation, noting “the No vote retreated in all the polling stations. To justify this result on pressure is an urban legend that no longer holds water today, due to the enormous French military presence on every street corner. The images of empty ballot boxes in the polling stations of some tribes are already circulating around the world.”
Non-participation, not boycott
The CSI-NP decision to launch a “non-participation” campaign (rather than an “active boycott” that would disrupt polling) was based on an understanding that many New Caledonians are tired of politics in the midst of a pandemic.
There have been many votes over the last three years: the November 2018 referendum; May 2019 provincial assembly and congressional elections; the October 2020 referendum; the collapse of the Santa government in February 2021; and four months of negotiations to form a new government under pro-independence President, Louis Mapou.
With an economy disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, a terrible surge of the Delta variant in September and October devastated many families. Having avoided the worst of the pandemic for 18 months, New Caledonia now has more than 12,300 cases and 280 deaths, with illness and mortality falling disproportionately on indigenous Kanak and Islander communities. To add insult to injury, many people in rural areas spent referendum day battening down the hatches as a tropical depression moved towards the islands, developing into Cyclone Ruby – a stark reminder of the ongoing climate emergency.
In this context, the decision to ignore the poll was cultural and social, as well as political. In Kanak majority areas, most voters just refused to attend. Less than 5% of registered voters went to the polls across the Loyalty Islands and polling booths in many Kanak tribes had few, if any votes.
In pro-independence areas on the east coast of the main island, there were similar drops in turnout: in the northeast town of Hienghène, only 1.5% of registered voters went to the polls – last year it was 91.4%. In Canala, turnout fell from 91% in 2020 to just 1.37%. Symbolically, not one person voted in the Kanak tribe of Tiendanite, birthplace of the martyred FLNKS leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou. Last year, there was a 100% Yes vote for independence.
Some commentators had predicted there would be clashes between young Kanak and the “forces of order”, after more than 1,500 extra police, gendarmes and soldiers, backed by 30 armoured cars and helicopters, were brought from France in a provocative show of force. However the mood throughout referendum day was peaceful and quiet across the islands. The French High Commission in Noumea confirmed that there were no incidents or disruption of voting at polling booths.
As the CSI-NP noted: “The behaviour of our youth has been exemplary and up to the challenge. It demonstrates that they are trustworthy in the face of provocation. The CSI instructions were complied with, even if everything has been done to ensure that an incident occurred.”
Triumphalism on the Right
Some anti-independence leaders have now issued triumphalist statements, praising voters who have said No to independence on three occasions under the 1998 Noumea Accord. The night of the vote, President of the Southern Province Sonia Backès, leader of the anti-independence Les Républicains calédoniennes (LRC), said: “Tomorrow the sun will rise over French New Caledonia. Tonight, New Caledonia is finally catching its breath. The Noumea Accord is finished and with it the exclusion of thousands of voters. We have decided in our heart and conscience to remain French!”
Backès and other leaders of Les Voix du Non will now seek to roll back many of the achievements of the Noumea Accord. Conservative politicians hope to open up the restricted electoral roll that limits on voting for local political institutions to New Caledonian citizens (and blocks the participation of tens of thousands of French nationals in votes for the provincial assemblies and national Congress).
Southern Province leaders also hope to revise the allocation of revenues to the three provinces, cutting back funding to the Northern Province and Loyalty Islands Province of that was originally designed to make up for generations of underdevelopment and lack of investment in the Kanak majority areas.
Last June, Les Voix du Non welcomed France’s unilateral decision to set the referendum date for December. They have also welcomed the announcement by France’s Overseas Minister Sébastien Lecornu of an 18-month timetable to determine a new political statute to replace the Noumea Accord. Even though Sunday’s vote was the last of three under this 1998 framework agreement, the French government has proposed negotiations for a new statute, to be finalised by June 2023, then put to popular referendum.
The scale of the boycott, however, has thrown this timetable up in the air, and even Overseas Minister Lecornu has acknowledged that negotiations between the French state and New Caledonian leaders will be delayed until after April’s Presidential elections and the election of a new government after June’s legislative elections in France (Given there have been 15 French Overseas Ministers in the last 35 years, there is also no guarantee that Lecornu will be reappointed to his post). As the CSI-NP bluntly announced: “The Lecornu calendar is now turned upside down. The CSI-NP is no longer committed to it. The 18 months announced cannot begin with a French government at the end of its mandate.”
Former President of New Caledonia Thierry Santa is a loyalist to the French Republic, but before the referendum he told Islands Business: “I’m convinced there won’t be three-way talks until the new government is in place after the national elections. The current government can’t solve the problems of New Caledonia in the next few months.”
The coalition of independence parties now clearly agrees: “We are waiting for the renewal of the French government to initiate real discussions on the country’s accession to full sovereignty. The road to dialogue has been broken by the stubbornness of a French government, unable to reconcile its geostrategic interests in the Pacific and its obligation to decolonise our country.”
Regional response
After a few days of headlines, New Caledonia is largely invisible in the regional and international media. Despite this, the outcome of the referendum is still causing reverberations internationally.
The FLNKS has strong support from fellow members of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). The day after the vote, the MSG Secretariat in Port Vila issued a message to “firmly support the call by FLNKS for the United Nations to declare the results of the third referendum null and void due to the ‘non-participation’ of the people of Kanaky. Voter turnout was below 50% of registered voters hence cannot be taken as the legitimate wish of the silent majority!”
The President of New Caledonia’s Congress Roch Wamytan, joined by Mickael Forrest and Charles Wea, travelled to New York and Paris in the aftermath of the vote, to brief diplomats, journalists and human rights organisations on the significance of the result. Fiji and Papua New Guinea are both members of the UN Special Committee on Decolonisation, so MSG’s policy will have some influence.
The outcome for the 18-member Pacific Islands Forum is more complicated. On decolonisation (as with climate and nuclear policy), Australia often stands apart from its island neighbours, but brings its weight to bear in developing the Forum consensus. For more than a decade, Australia has signed a series of strategic partnership agreements with France, which have not been abandoned despite the current diplomatic dispute over submarines, which saw President Macron condemn Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison as a ‘liar’.
Beyond this, France and the European Union are major donors to the Pacific Community and other regional organisations. Many Pacific governments will likely be measured in their response, wary of interfering in the domestic politics of a Forum member state (although the presence of President Louis Mapou – the first Kanak independence leader to head New Caledonia’s government in nearly 40 years – will change the dynamic of the next Forum leaders retreat, scheduled in February).
Many Pacific governments will likely await the final report of the Pacific Islands Forum Ministerial Committee to New Caledonia, led by former Fiji Foreign Minister, Ambassador Ratu Inoke Kubuabola and accompanied by veteran Samoan diplomat High Commissioner to Fiji Ali’ioaiga Feturi Elisaia, Forum Secretary General Henry Puna and Forum Secretariat staff.
In a preliminary, carefully worded statement from the observer mission after the poll, the Forum representatives noted: “A significant proportion of registered voters, mainly Kanak and pro-independence supporters chose to refrain from voting, in support of their non-participation stance made known before the referendum, which should be taken into the contextual consideration and analysis of the result. The spirit in which the referendum was conducted weighs heavily on the Noumea Accord and New Caledonia’s self-determination process. Civic participation is an integral component of any democracy and critical to the interpretation and implications of Sunday’s poll.”
As Washington seeks to build alliances to contain China in the region, the announcement last September of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) partnership has also transformed regional geopolitics and France’s standing in the region. The abrupt cancellation of the $90 billion contract between Australia and the French corporation Naval Group has disrupted the “India-Australia-France axis” first proposed by President Macron in May 2018. Politicians across the spectrum in New Caledonia agree that the AUKUS announcement in September contributed to France’s decision in early November to proceed with the vote, against the clearly express wishes of the independence movement, and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The future debate around France’s role in the region will also be affected by possible changes in Asia-Pacific leadership, with a series of significant elections throughout 2022. Australia and France both go to elections in the next six months, followed by Fiji later in the year. Polls in India and South Korea will be followed by the November 2022 midterm elections in the United States: if President Biden’s Democratic Party loses control of the Congress, his Indo-Pacific agenda, AUKUS commitments and climate policy will be harder to implement.
Regardless of this geopolitical dynamism, the massive boycott of the referendum shows that any political solution in New Caledonia must involve the Kanak people and their representatives. Even as Bougainville negotiates its pathway to independence with Port Moresby, and West Papuans continue to mobilise against Indonesian human rights abuses, the issue of self-determination and decolonisation remains on the regional agenda.
