3 June – The Pacific Regional Climate Centre (Pacific RCC) is drawing attention to the latest El Niño/La Niña Update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which signals a significant and accelerating shift in Pacific Ocean conditions heading into the second half of 2026.
WMO El Niño/Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his video statement.
“A regional or global El Niño forecast is the starting point, but it does not tell us everything we need to make decisions. Climate impacts play out differently across Melanesia, Polynesia, and Micronesia, sometimes quite differently. The Pacific RCC Network strongly encourages communities, local leaders, and planners to reach out to their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for local climate predictions that are specific to their location. That is exactly what those services are there for, and that kind of locally grounded advice is what allows people to make practical decisions,” said Dr. Simon McGree, Chair of the Pacific Regional Climate Centre Management Committee.
He explained that the combination of warming ocean temperatures, atmospheric signals, and model agreement provides a high degree of confidence that El Niño is developing. “For Pacific Island communities, that matters because El Niño influences rainfall patterns, drought risk, tropical cyclone activity, and ocean conditions that people rely on for food and livelihoods. Now is the time to pay attention,” he said.
It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only drivers of regional climate, and the strength of ENSO signals does not directly correspond to the scale of their local impacts. Regional and national seasonal outlooks produced by WMO Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums, and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, remain the most reliable source of actionable guidance.
In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific, the area used as a monitoring reference was approaching El Niño thresholds, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO.
These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 °C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming.
Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index, which is the atmospheric component of El Niño, is also consistent with developing El Niño conditions.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Celeste Saulo.
ENDS
NOTE: The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction (GPCs-SP) including the Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME).
Official release from WMO: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-prepare-el-nino
For the latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update: https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina
For the latest updates on Pacific Climate Outlooks: https://www.pacificrcc.net
For more information or press queries contact:
Patricia Mallam
E: patriciam@sprep.org
