Trump, the Russians, and then there’s China
Australia continues to tread cautiously amid heightened security worries, both in the Pacific and domestically. Addressing a public policy think tank, Pacific Minister Pat Conroy was forthright when he urged China to avoid “coercion” in the Pacific Islands and to be “more transparent in the aid” it provides. Conroy went as far as to acknowledge a “state of permanent contest” between China and the West. Added to that tussle is the sleepless nights and hectic days in Canberra (that spread to a few other key centres across the Australian landscape) in recent times over the Russian-led breach of security in which a Russian-born Australian army private and her husband who arrived in Australia about 10 years ago were accused of trying to steal military secrets for Moscow. Coming as it did just around the attempt on Donald Trump’s life, the Russian incident set off the Aussies on a major hunt to figure out how the breach happened. All in all, keeping an eye on the shadows in the Pacific, as well as keeping up the rear guard on the home front makes for some interesting fodder for discussion among those with a keen eye for these things in Canberra. While it’s said every once in a while by some in Canberra that the whole ‘China threat’ notion is more imaginary than real, those close to the circles where the action takes place weren’t exactly unperturbed in August. That double whammy was in very real effect on the ground. And there’s no reason to expect any change in the geopolitical scenario, any time soon. So, expect to see more power games unfold in the Pacific.
AUKUS flare up
Meanwhile, there’s been a very public flare-up over revelations that a new AUKUS Treaty allows for the actual transfer of nuclear material from the United States to Australia as opposed to the exchange of “naval nuclear propulsion information”, under Australia’s nuclear submarine deal with the Americans. The revelations have set off significant chatter in NGO circles in the Pacific, upscaling the existing worries of Pacific Island countries about the build-up of militarisation in the region. Eyes are peeled to watch for New Zealand’s movement on the agreement.
Education and geopolitics
It seems that the escalating geopolitical machinations in the Pacific are extending into the region’s tertiary education sector. Heads of Melanesian national universities met in Port Vila, mid-July. Behind the noble aspirations is said to be a very distinct push from the Australians to support this grouping, as a way of building further influence into the tertiary education sector in the Pacific. There are those who are silently worried about how this will impact upon areas such as research – and whether academics will then have to be “predisposed” in a certain direction because of the Australian money coming in. But then, who are they to have a say when someone else is paying? Tertiary education has become big business, so the implications are endlessly worrying for those that really care.
Lobbying for a seat
There’s been some serious lobbying by a major Pacific Island entity for a seat at the top table of the Pacific Islands Forum, to the extent that it’s gotten everyone talking and the big guns within the particular entity worrying about the optics of it all – as well as the agenda behind it. It’s a big push and it does not make sense to those in the know, except that it’s been made rather obvious that the person(s) at the top are looking to be treated on the same level as heads of state. There were worries previously about where this is heading, which means this big drive has folks in top regional circles seriously concerned about how this might end up.
Pack for a tent?
Pacific Islands Forum member countries with large tourism industries have an advantage when they host the annual Forum Leaders meeting – there are plenty of hotels and guest houses to accommodate the array of delegations, from 18 countries, 21 Forum Dialogue Partners, observer nations, multilateral and UN agencies, the media, NGOs etc. Recognising the limited housing, the Tongan government planned construction of a new housing estate to accommodate delegates – but as time wore on, it was clear that construction would be pushed down to the wire. For latecomers who haven’t booked a room, you may want to pack a tent.
Signals
In what’s being seen as a huge signal from the Fiji Government this month on pushing ahead with a review of the 2013 Constitution, the Fiji National University hosted a senior Australian academic to dissect the possibilities in what has so far been thought of as a virtually impossible task. The fact that everyone from Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka to a large part of his Cabinet were present at the presentation underlined its significance to the direction things will take in the near future. While the possibility of finally being able to move away from what’s always been seen as a document imposed against the will of the people is already the cause of optimism in Fiji, it may be too early to celebrate. Because it seems that the underlying problems of poor governance that’s very quickly become an acquired hallmark of the Rabuka-led Coalition, is quite likely to continue unabated. If the widely criticised pay rise for parliamentarians and an expensive party at the Grand Pacific Hotel for government members were disasters, then there could be some outcomes coming up soon that could be on an even greater scale, from what we’re picking up.
Spying on detractors
Constitutional review may be on the cards for Fiji, but some ghosts of the previous government appear to have attached themselves to the halls of power in Suva. Following the pay rise fiasco and the subsequent huge public uproar, some NGOs went all out in criticism of the government’s actions. There have since been reports of NGOs being ‘tailed’ by suspicious looking figures, with directives being issued from high up to dig into their records. That kind of thing used to be the hallmark of the previous government. A rather worrying sign.
