TONGANS have been warned of possible significant water shortages, skin diseases, dry soil, and disruptions to household income and livelihoods as the kingdom faces a prolonged El Niño.
The Tonga Meteorological Services’ latest prediction points toward a strong to very strong El Niño event. Tonga Met has noted that this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.
Following stakeholder consultations and feedback, Tonga Met was able to identify possible impacts of the prolonged El Niño in Tonga.
Water supply is currently under pressure, with the possibility of depleted groundwater in Tongatapu, higher operational costs for pumping water, and increased costs for drinking water. Within a six- to 12-month period, there is a possibility that well water will dry up, leading to migration to better sources.
Agriculture will also be affected. Less rainfall will reduce soil moisture, which will affect crops like yams, as well as vegetables like lettuce, tomatoes, and watermelon within a month.
Prolonged drought within the next three to 12 months will reduce crop production, increase crop prices, impact cattle and pigs, increase pests and diseases, and affect livelihoods and food security.
While water and agriculture are major concerns, Tonga Met warned of the possible health impacts this could cause. Limited water access will cause dehydration, which can lead to skin diseases, an increase in infectious diseases, and a lack of water for hygiene and sanitation for pregnant women, infants, newborn babies, and new mothers.
In worst-case scenarios, there will be an increase in social stress along with serious health issues like typhoid, diarrhoea, and lung disease.
Tonga Met also warned of disruption to household incomes and livelihoods, which could affect the education system through the relocation of students from smaller islands to the main island, lower attendance, dropouts, and school closures.
According to Tonga Met, these impacts may become evident after the specified period of below-average rainfall. These are estimates only, as actual impacts will depend on island size, topography, geology, and soil type.
Over the past three months to the end of July, Niuafo’ou and Vava’u have been on Drought Alert, Niuatoputapu has been given a Drought Warning, and Ha’apai continues to remain under a Drought Declaration with Tongatapu and ‘Eua.
Tonga Met said the outlook for August and the next three months indicated very dry conditions for all parts of Tonga.
