TONGANS have been warned to collect and store water as the country braces for significant changes in temperatures, rainfall patterns, drought, and tropical cyclone activity in the next three to six months.
The Tonga Meteorological Services (Tonga Met) declared a state of El Niño on June 19 following sustained ocean warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, alongside shifts in ocean-atmospheric circulation.
After tracking five months of climate indicators, Tonga Met confirmed that key ocean temperatures crossed crucial thresholds, with the Niño 3.4 index rising to +0.92 °C by mid-June, confirming that an El Niño event was well underway.
Climate models predict that Pacific Ocean waters will continue to warm through January 2027 but for the people of Tonga this means they will encounter several climate impacts over the coming months.
According to Tonga’s latest climate outlook the Kingdom will likely experience:
- A high likelihood of widespread rainfall deficits and drought risk. Below-average rainfall is expected across all island divisions, especially for communities that are relying heavily on rainwater storage tanks.
- High likelihood for an increased in Tropical Cyclones to occur in Tonga this upcoming Tropical Cyclone season (November 2026 – April 2027) with a strong likelihood of at least two reaching severe strength (Category 3 to 5)
- And an increased likelihood for marine heat wave and subsequent coral bleaching to affect all Tonga waters
Tonga Met and relevant stakeholders said they would coordinate a whole-of-government approach including water security planning, emergency response frameworks, and drought preparedness as part of the Kingdom’s preparation for the El Niño event.
Source: Matangi Tonga Online
