THERE are mixed reactions in the Pacific military establishment as the current conflict unfolds in the Middle East between the United States, Israel and Iran.
In Papua New Guinea, former militarily strategists have warned that the country is exposed to the conflict because of the recently upgraded Lombrum Naval Base in Manus.
Further north, US military bases on Guam and the Republic of Northern Marianas remain on full alert but claim there is no direct threat from the conflict.
And south in Fiji, former United Nations security expert, Ro Naulu Mataitini, has warned of a possible impact on fuel prices, the tourism industry, and remittances.
Fiji has been relatively about the conflict, but Sitiveni Rabuka’s government has aligned itself with Israel, opening an embassy in Jerusalem in 2025. Rabuka has been a US ally since before his military coup in 1987.
Papua New Guinea, with a broader US security commitment worth $USD864 million over 10 years is now a strategic military transit and operational base for threats in the Southwest Pacific and Southeast Asia.
This has prompted former PNG Defence Force Commander, Major-General Jerry Singirok, to urge James Marape’s government to take a neutral stand in the conflict. But it might be difficult to minimise attention to the recent PNG-Australia-United States naval facility refurbishment worth $USD135 million.
“While Papua New Guinea is geographically distant, the principle of escalation to a global ‘war of bases’ cannot be dismissed if this conflict broadens further,” Singirok said in a statement with other retired officers.
“Oil prices have risen and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting shipping and global travel,” the leagues said.
“Thousands of travellers are stranded, and the crisis could last weeks or longer with potential economic consequences for Papua New Guinea.”
While the US and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khameini, and several senior members of the administration in Operation Epic Fury, Iranian forces have hit back with ballistic missiles and drones.
In Fiji, Mataitini pointed to the possibility of a drawn-out war with the US unable to effectively remove and replace the current administration. Iran, however, is most likely prepared for a protracted conflict.
Mataitini said Pacific countries would be wise to prepare for rising costs associated with global gas and oil price hikes. He said preparations could take the form of planting food and minimising reliance on imports.
“We import nearly everything that moves on water—fuel, food, manufactured goods. When the Strait of Hormuz closes, when oil prices spike, when global shipping lanes grow dangerous, the price of kerosene in Suva, of rice in Honiara, of canned fish in Tarawa rises,” Mataitini said in a social media post.
“When great powers fight, small islands are forgotten. The attention shifts. The aid dries up. The world that promised to help us with climate adaptation instead spends its treasure on destruction.”
With fuel tankers caught in an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it is predicted that oil prices will rise from $USD82 to $USD100 per barrel within weeks, forcing transport and food prices up.
Mataitini warned that in order to survive a global crisis, the Pacific must look to relationships within the region including the value of community and the hard work needed in order to be resilient.