It was perhaps the most watched and closely observed elections to have taken place within the Pacific region in the last decade.
As voters in Solomon Islands went to the polls on 17 April 2024, the world’s two superpowers—the United States and China, plus their allies—watched with much anxiety.
At the center of attention was Manasseh Sogavare – the outgoing Solomon Islands Prime Minister who made international headlines when he switched his country’s diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China in 2019.
That decision rattled Western leaders and generated a sea of geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States and its allies.
A follow-up security agreement that Sogavare’s government signed with China later in 2022 took the rivalry to a level never seen or experienced before in the Pacific.
And so many observers viewed the Solomons elections, which should have taken place in early 2023 but delayed for seven months by Sogavare, as a battle between the US, and China.
Smooth polling day
Although tensions were high on the ground, polling day went unusually smoothly – thanks to the heavy presence of police officers from Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea.
Although faced by a real challenger this time, Sogavare managed to secure his East Choiseul seat for his seventh consecutive term in parliament – though he won by just 259 votes, his narrowest victory margin since he was first elected to parliament in 1997.
His re-election made local and international headlines, and kept diplomats, academics, researchers, and observers guessing.
Was he back to lead the country for another four years? If so, would he continue to push Solomon Islands into the arms of China from its traditional donor partners?
Manele takes the helm
As winning MPs made their way into Honiara to start the government-formation process, tensions associated with Sogavare’s likely return to the helm grew.
Fears of another riot were high. Local police, with the backing of their regional counterparts, were on full alert.
With no outright winner, political parties headed into serious horse-trading to form the next government.
Sogavare’s Ownership, Unity and Responsibility (OUR) Party won 15 seats, but that fell far short of the 26 needed to lead outright. However, OUR Party quickly formed alliances with two other political parties, and with the support of the ten independent MPs, secured the majority.
At this stage, it became clear Sogavare’s camp had the numbers. The big question was, who would be their leader?
It was a sigh of relief for many, when Sogavare himself came forward to announce his group’s candidate for Prime Minister – not him, but Jeremiah Manele.
A former Foreign Affairs minister and seasoned diplomat, Manele was seen as the most ideal candidate to calm things down considering the public hostility against Sogavare and his OUR Party.
The November 2021 riots in Honiara, that resulted in considerable damage and caused many ethnic-Chinese and Solomon Islands entrepreneurs to lose their businesses, were widely believed to have been driven by outrage over Sogavare’s decision to shift allegiance from Taiwan to China.
“We are well-aware of the likely repercussions of having Sogavare as our candidate,” a Sogavare camp insider told Islands Business.
“This is why we picked Manele.”
For many Solomon Islanders, the thought of having Sogavare and his OUR Party at the helm for the next four years was inconceivable.
But with Sogavare out of leadership contention and Manele at the front, there was a certain degree of acceptance.
The Prime Minister’s election on 2 May was a foregone conclusion. Manele drew 31 votes of the 49 ballots cast to claim the top job for the first time.
Same government, different leader
Reactions to Manele’s victory both at home and abroad were mixed.
Many saw the incoming government as “just a replica of the last Sogavare government with a new leader”.
“I don’t expect to see much change in terms of policy and decision-making,” local activist, Lawrence Makili told Islands Business.
“They are just the same government with a different person at the helm,” Makili added.
“So, you’d expect China to be at the centre of every decision and policy they’ll come up with.”
But Honiara resident Wilfred Iro expressed the views of many voters in saying that the important thing now is having a different person other than Sogavare at the helm.
“I can only imagine the public reaction if it was Sogavare who was elected today,” Iro says of the election outcome.
“At least we have someone who is not Sogavare.”
International reactions
While local sceptics were blunt in their assessment of Manele’s victory, Western diplomats were relieved to have someone they’ve known for years and could speak to with ease.
“I think the positive we get out of this election is we have a different leader other than Sogavare,” one Honiara-based diplomat told Islands Business.
“Manele may be part of the last regime, but he is not Sogavare. He’s a diplomat, someone we know and could relate to,” the diplomat added.
China was amongst the first diplomatic allies to welcome Manele’s election victory.
“We look forward to working with you to develop China-Solomon Islands relations and deliver more benefits to our peoples,” Chinese ambassador to Solomon Islands, Cai Weiming wrote in his congratulatory message.
The US issued a similar message: “We look forward to working with Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele to further strengthen the US-Solomon Islands relationship and move our nations toward a better future.”
Soon after the election, New Zealand sent its Foreign Affairs Minister, Winston Peters to deliver Wellington’s well wishes to Manele.
Australia dispatched its Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Richard Marles to reinforce the two countries’ diplomatic and traditional ties. Marles met with Manele, his deputy Bradley Tovosia and Finance Minister Sogavare.
elections. Photo: In-depth Solomons
Precarious economy
Whilst creating history as the first Prime Minister from the province of Isabel, Manele has not lost sight of the mammoth task that lies ahead.
Two weeks before the election, Governor of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands, Dr Luke Forau issued a blunt warning.
“The state of the economy remains in a ‘precarious’ situation,” Forau stated when launching the bank’s 2023 Annual Report.
“We urgently need a major economic reform program if the economy were to prosper in the medium to long term,” he added.
“The reform program must be specific, targeted and measurable.
“The incoming government is in a better position to initiate this reform.
“We have a fast-growing population, with a population rate of growth higher than the average economic growth rate.
“This is dangerously not good and is a serious concern. We need to grow the economy faster than the growth of the population.”
In his victory speech, Manele highlighted that fixing the economy would be his government’s priority. That task will be led by none other than Sogavare, whom Manele appointed his Minister for Finance and Treasury.
Sogavare is not new to the Finance portfolio. As a former public servant, he once headed the tax department, later moving up to become permanent secretary and then finance minister.
Leading from behind?
But Sogavare’s appointment has attracted some debate. Many believe having him in Finance makes him the most powerful man in the current government behind the Prime Minister.
“As the Finance Minister, Sogavare has the power to dictate where things will go for the current government,” Makili asserts.
“So basically, he’ll be leading the pack from behind,” he continued.
However, others say Manele is a strong and experienced leader who knows what he’s doing and where he wants things to go.
“It’s guesswork to say Manele is a puppet. He is not,” Iro said.
“He is not Sogavare, and he’s someone who cares about his reputation and the people around him,” Iro said.
“He’s an inclusive leader, and he listens to what people say. So, I don’t think he’ll lead like the way Sogavare did in the last five years.”
