This is the second in a three-part editorial series on the Pacific Meteorological Council (PMC), the Pacific Islands Meteorological Strategy (PIMS) and Weather Ready Pacific (WRP). All information used is sourced from the PCM-8 Agenda.
THE Pacific Islands Meteorological Strategy 2017-2026 established a valuable regional reference point and mobilised a substantial portfolio of technical cooperation and investments. Progress was most visible in multi-hazard early warning, climate and ocean services, observation and data infrastructure, capacity development and regional technical cooperation.
The regional progress account identifies eight areas of most significant change: regional governance, coordination and visibility; the national enabling environment; NMHS capacity and national funding; access to external funding; observing infrastructure and the regional radar network; disaster-risk partnership and public communication; climate services and data management; and regional collaboration, shared systems and inclusion.
National legislation and planning
Dedicated meteorological legislation rose from seven to at least 11 countries, strategic plans rose from five to at least 12, and two new standalone departments were established.
Most services now conduct their own forecasting with at least one qualified meteorologist, funded overwhelmingly from national budgets. Nine countries have accessed multilateral climate finance since 2017, reversing an earlier concentration in a single country.
Operational radars increased from one to three. A first regional radar strategy was developed, and a Sustainable Maintenance Facility is in prospect.
NMHSs transformed from paper-based data agencies into modern climate-service providers, supported by PICOF and the Pacific RCC-Network. The RTC and RIC are progressing to operations from 2027, with shared communities of practice and strengthened MERL and GEDSI practice.
There was a shift toward shared responsibility with NDMOs and communities, impact-based forecasting, anticipatory action and new dissemination channels.
What the evidence can and cannot show
Because PIMS 2017-2026 operated without a defined MEL Framework, documented evidence of progress was found to be severely limited. Where practical, proxy indicators filled evidence gaps, including counts of enacted legislation, qualified staff, and operational infrastructure standing in for outcome measures that were never systematically tracked.
Three strands of evidence were combined: an expert documentary account, structured expert consultations informed by the Most Significant Change technique, and Panel and country-report evidence. These proxies indicate the foundations of progress rather than its full effect, a limitation acknowledged throughout the Brief.
The review identified three persistent and mutually reinforcing constraints. Institutional sustainability remains a major challenge, with limited core budgets, project dependence, workforce shortages and turnover, weak maintenance capacity, gaps in enabling legal and institutional arrangements, and ageing or incompatible equipment affecting continuity of services.
Service capability and last-mile effectiveness also remain uneven, including underdeveloped hydrological services and persistent challenges in ensuring that information and warnings effectively reach and support decision-making by remote and vulnerable communities. Data, reporting, and institutional memory remain weak in many contexts, with incomplete baselines, inconsistent metrics, and staff turnover limiting continuity, regional analysis, learning, and evidence-based planning.
Lesson for the next strategy
Its principal lesson is that lasting progress comes from turning successful activities into stronger, integrated systems. These lessons underpin the shift in PIMS 2027-2036 from a predominantly project- and activity-based model to Pacific-led system transformation, linking sustainable institutions, people-centred services, resilient infrastructure, regional cooperation, and long-term investment.
The PIMS Theory of Change is based on a simple proposition: trusted and actionable information enables better decisions; better decisions enable earlier action; earlier action strengthens resilience.
Supported by SPREP and SPC to cover the 8th Pacific Meteorological Council Meeting (PMC-8) in Nuku’alofa, Tonga. Editorial control remains with the author.
First Series | “The Pacific Meteorological Council’s coordination journey” – https://islandsbusiness.com/news-break/the-pacific-meteorological-councils-coordination-journey/
