After nearly five months of conflict in New Caledonia, the French government has formally announced it will abandon a constitutional amendment on voting rights for New Caledonia – the trigger for clashes between Kanak protestors and French police that began on 13 May.
The French State will also delay elections for New Caledonia’s three provincial assemblies and national Congress until late 2025.
On Tuesday, newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier made a major speech to the National Assembly in Paris, setting out a declaration of general policy for his government.
In his address, Barnier announced that “a new period must now begin, devoted to the economic and social reconstruction of New Caledonia, to the search for a political consensus on its institutional future.”
While there were some key announcements on political responses to the New Caledonia crisis, there were no firm commitments on reconstruction finance. Since May, rioting and clashes have caused economic damage that has left thousands unemployed, the crucial nickel industry in disarray, and hundreds of small businesses battered or shuttered.
After months of ambiguity, the French State has finally confirmed that a constitutional amendment on voting rights for New Caledonia would “not be submitted to the Congress of Versailles.” The legislation, which passed the French Senate in February and the National Assembly in May, still needed to be ratified by the Congress – a joint sitting of both houses of parliament.
With his threat of unilateral changes to voting rights, President Macron had attempted to drive the FLNKS independence movement – and especially the largest party Union Calédonienne – to the negotiating table, to agree on a new statute to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord. This ploy has failed miserably, leaving ordinary New Caledonians to bear the cost of a shattered economy, with 13 deaths, hundreds injured and social divisions in the community.
After nearly five months of conflict, New Caledonia is back to square one. Having tried to ram through voting changes, Paris now recognises the need for consensus between supporters and opponents of independence as a prerequisite for developing a new statute that defines the French dependency’s political status. A difficult discussion remains: independence supporters still want a transition to sovereignty (albeit with “interdependence” with Paris for a negotiated period), while Loyalist parties will fiercely resist any pathway to independence.
Last March, the French National Assembly delayed elections for New Caledonia’s three provincial assemblies and 54-member national Congress. Since the signing of the Noumea Accord, elections have been held in May every five years, but – as President Macron tried to expand voting rights to tens of thousands more French nationals – last May’s polls were pushed back until an undetermined date before 15 December 2024.
Now, Prime Minister Barnier has announced that the polls will again be postponed, to be held before 30 November 2025. This extra delay leaves the Government of New Caledonia in office for another year, led by President Louis Mapou.
It also gives time for further talks between the French state, the independence movement and anti-independence parties. Weeks ago, President Macron told New Caledonian parliamentarians that he’d visit New Caledonia in “late September or early October” to re-start the stalled talks on political status. But this timetable was for show and the trip is now re-scheduled for November.
In his address, Prime Minister Barnier described the ongoing conflict as a “crisis of exceptional gravity.” However a delegation of New Caledonian political leaders watching the speech in Paris were shocked there was no public commitment on extra funding for reconstruction and rebuilding, following their bipartisan Congress resolution seeking 4 billion euros in aid, loans and grants.
Although anti-independence politicians initially welcomed the appointment of Barnier as Prime Minister, some are worried that Paris will not follow through on their concerns.
After Barnier’s speech, Loyalist politician Nicolas Metzdorf said: “I find the Prime Minister’s speech on New Caledonia completely disconnected, as there is no announcement of financial support for New Caledonia, even as we’re going through the most serious economic, social and humanitarian crisis of our history.”
Metzdorf, a strident opponent of independence in New Caledonia, condemned “the totally useless announcement that the Congress of Versailles would not be convened” to address changes to voting rights, and said it was “a pledge given to radical separatists and the far Left.” Barnier, he said, “does not appreciate the seriousness of the situation.”
Earlier this year, the FLNKS called for “a mediation mission led by a high-level dignitary, in order to guarantee the impartiality of the French State and to open a new phase of discussion.”
Now, Barnier said, president of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet and Senate president Gérard Larcher will travel to Noumea for a “mission of consultation and dialogue.”
For Nicolas Metzdorf, this is just “yet another dialogue mission.” However the decision to send Braun-Pivet and Larcher to Noumea buries Macron’s attempt to delegate dialogue to public servants.
During his flying visit to New Caledonia on 23 May, the French President was accompanied by three senior public servants – Remi Bastille, Eric Thiers and Frédéric Pottier – whom he named as a contact point to continue dialogue with New Caledonian leaders. While each had experience and knowledge of New Caledonia’s complex politics, the three French officials are hardly independent, working under the authority of the executive. Barnier has now pledged to establish an inter-ministerial committee to implement policy changes in 2025, under his supervision.
There’s still a way to go before the talks can advance, given ongoing security operations in New Caledonia. There are also stark differences between the Loyalists and FLNKS over who is responsible for recent conflict, and debates within the independence movement over the best way to proceed (two parties in the FLNKS – Palika and UPM – have criticised Union Calédonienne’s decision to open the coalition to other pro-independence forces at a recent congress near Koumac, and have suspended their involvement until later this year).
Many in Noumea will now wait to see whether Barnier can deliver, given France’s desperate economic situation and his unstable hold on power (no parliamentary group in the National Assembly has a guaranteed majority to pass legislation).
Speaking to journalists in Paris, FLNKS deputy Emmanuel Tjibaou said: “For now, I have heard the words, I am waiting for action.” His parliamentary colleague, FLNKS Senator Robert Xowie went further: “Today, there is no other solution for the country than a lasting peace, and that is called ‘sovereignty’.”