BOWING to reality, the French government has abandoned plans to hold a referendum on March 15 to consider a new political statute for New Caledonia.
French President Emmanuel Macron has written to leading New Caledonian politicians, inviting them to Paris for a meeting on 16 January to discuss the way forward on a new political statute to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord.
The first news about the changed policy came in a leak to the French newspaper Le Monde, which reported that the government led by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will abandon the proposed referendum, scheduled for March 15, 2026. Instead, President Macron has proposed talks in Paris on the current crisis, to “continue the dialogue” and “provide clarification on the Bougival Accord.”
Since it was negotiated at a roundtable in France last July, the draft text of the Bougival Accord has been mired in controversy – opposed by the main independence coalition FLNKS, defended by the conservative Loyalist/Rassemblement bloc, but increasingly questioned by other New Caledonian parties, who want to amend the draft text that was officially gazetted by the French government in early September.
During her visit to New Caledonia in November, France’s new Overseas Minister Naïma Moutchou surprised both supporters and opponents of independence by announcing that a referendum to implement the draft text could be held in mid-March, even before draft legislation went before the French parliament for consideration and amendment. This immediately raised questions about the legality and practicality of this revised sequence.
Loyalist politician Nicolas Metzdorf, one of two New Caledonian deputies in the French legislature, has now confirmed that the referendum timetable has been abandoned. However, he said that conservative anti-independence leaders would only come to Paris in January “to discuss the implementation of the Bougival Accord and that there was no point in trying to reopen negotiations on anything else that would lead us towards independence.”
In a letter to President Macron, Loyalist leaders stressed: “If the discussions you propose for January 16 are intended to revisit the political balance of the Bougival Agreement, then Les Loyalistes will not support them.”
Originally scheduled for May 2024, elections for New Caledonia’s three provincial assemblies have been postponed three times to allow for dialogue. Now scheduled for June 2026, French courts have ruled that the elections should not be postponed again. Without agreement on a new political statute in the next six months – and legislated changes to voting rolls – the elections must proceed in mid-2026 on the old voting rolls established under the Noumea Accord.
For the Loyalists, changes to voting rights are a core demand, with Loyalist leaders Sonia Backès, Nicolas Metzdorf, Gil Brial and Brieuc Frogier writing to President Macron: “If the timetable for implementing the Agreement is called into question, the provincial elections will be held with a ‘frozen’ electorate. This is another culpable renunciation of democracy; but the absence of an open electorate would then signal an abandonment of the path of consensus in favour of obstructionism and violence. The Loyalists would then oppose this with all their might.”
New Caledonia’s main independence coalition FLNKS has fiercely opposed the Bougival process, unlike other pro-independence parties in the UNI parliamentary group.
An FLNKS delegation travelled to Paris on December 15, to meet with French parliamentarians and present their perspectives on Bougival and decolonisation. Reaffirming their rejection of the draft text, FLNKS leaders described the Bougival process as a “political dead end” and called on the French State to “get back on the right track.”
Key FLNKS leaders have also highlighted the need for international monitoring of the process. Union Calédonienne politician Rock Wamytan said the FLNKS will make an official request for a United Nations mission to be sent to New Caledonia, will strengthen the presence of the FLNKS within regional organisations, and create a dedicated FLNKS diplomatic unit.
Lobbying in Paris
Beyond division in Noumea, another key reason for the government’s decision is opposition from parties in the French National Assembly and Senate, which fear a referendum in March 2026 could provoke more conflict in New Caledonia.
President Macron has met with Gérard Larcher, the president of the French Senate, and Yaël Braun-Pivet, the president of the National Assembly, who reportedly told him that legislation could not pass through the French legislature at this time.
For Loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf, “this means that political parties such as the Rassemblement National, the Socialist Party and even the [centre-Right] Les Républicains are refusing to vote on the referendum. Why? Because they are afraid of a boycott by the FLNKS.”
Last month, Socialist Party deputies in the National Assembly and Senate voted to defer New Caledonia’s provincial elections until June 2026, to allow more time to resolve differences over the way forward. Many were shocked when the Lecornu government then proposed to hold the referendum in March, without any chance to review and amend legislation on a new political statute until after the poll in New Caledonia.
In response, leaders of the Socialist Party wrote to French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, calling on his government to suspend the proposed March 2026 referendum, to allow more time for dialogue between contending forces in New Caledonia: “By organising an early referendum directly on the text of the Bougival agreement, the government is putting the cart before the horse and straying from the proposed schedule and mechanisms.”
The French government’s plan has also been questioned in the French Senate, with an exchange between Overseas Minister Naïma Moutchou and Senator Robert Xowie, a longtime Union Calédonienne politician and one of two New Caledonian senators in the French parliament.
Addressing the Overseas Minister, Senator Xowie highlighted the divisions in the Congress of New Caledonia, revealed in vote on 8 December to endorse an advisory opinion on the referendum. The Congress vote saw 19 in favour (the Loyalist-Rassemblement bloc and independent Yoann Lecourieux), 14 against (the UC-FLNKS group and Marie-Line Sakilia) but also 19 abstentions (the UNI group, Calédonie Ensemble and Eveil Océanien).
For Xowie, this vote highlights the way that France’s push forward on the Bougival process was dividing New Caledonians: “While Bougival has not been approved by FLNKS members, the Congress voted on 8 December without a clear majority… Your claim that this referendum is ‘wanted by local political forces’ is contradicted by this vote, yet you still choose to move forward. You are asking the people to vote on an incomplete, legally disputed text with no local consensus. You give us lessons on democracy … but how ironic from a government that refuses to listen to the voice of its own people!”
In response, Overseas Minister Moutchou acknowledged: “It’s a fragmented political landscape, I won’t deny that. The government is in the process of analysing the written opinions of each political party …. It is continuing consultations with all stakeholders to determine the next steps.”
Now, as the referendum timetable is abandoned, it seems Moutchou’s authority as Overseas Minister has been undercut by her own President, with her proposal dumped and Macron taking charge of the scheduled meeting with New Caledonian leaders on 16 January.
Economic debates
As these political clashes continue, New Caledonia’s economy remains fragile, and government ministers, business leaders and community organisations are awaiting the adoption of France’s 2026 budget in Paris.
Last week, New Caledonia’s Office of Statistics and Economic Studies released more grim news on the economic fallout from last year’s political and social crisis, with the release of external trade data for 2024. ISEE-NC reports that in 2024, the value of imports fell to 251 billion CFP Pacific francs ($AUD3.7 billion), down 29 per cent compared to 2023. Exports fell 41per cent to 138 billion CFP. As a result, exports only covered 55 per cent of imports in 2024, compared to 67 per cent in 2023 and 75 per cent in 2022.
With New Caledonia’s GDP falling by 13.5 per cent in 2024, and tourism only slowly recovering, the French government has been preparing two financial assistance packages: one to assist the New Caledonian government budget and private sector businesses, and the other for the revitalisation of the nickel industry, with the mining and smelting of nickel serving as the backbone of the economy.
Even as it struggles to finalise the French budget before year’s end, the Lecornu government faces another financial headache: a court in Noumea has attributed liability to the French State for the destruction of local businesses during last year’s riots and clashes between Kanak protesters and French security forces.
In a case decided on December 16 by the Administrative Tribunal in Noumea, the Allianz insurance group won a major case against the French government, with the court ordering France to pay €28 million for failing to provide adequate security during clashes and riots in May 2024. Allianz had insured businesses in the Kenu-In commercial complex on the outskirts of the capital. It brought 14 claims before the Administrative Tribunal to hold the French State liable for damage that occurred between May 15-17, 2024, as the building was looted and torched.
During the case, the court heard of an internal note, as the general commanding the gendarmerie in New Caledonia admitted a “mobile gendarmerie squadron and a GIGN unit were deployed before being immediately withdrawn,” even though their mission was to protect Kenu-In.
This case could establish a precedent for French State liability for other security failures in New Caledonia, even though the early failures to protect public and private infrastructure led to a massive deployment of forces from France and Tahiti, nearly 6000 gendarmes, riot police and a specialist anti-terrorism squads backed by armoured cars and military logistics.