AFTER four days of talks in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron and five parliamentary groups from New Caledonia have signed the Elysée-Oudinot Accord – an agreement on constitutional and economic change for the French Pacific dependency.
The new agreement, which must pass through lengthy parliamentary processes to become law, is designed to “complement” and “clarify” the draft Bougival text adopted in July 2025, which was gazetted by the French government last September.
In Paris, President of New Caledonia Alcide Ponga told French media: “We discussed very intensely, very calmly, and very respectfully with the representatives of the French State in order to reach this agreement.”
The talks, starting on 16 January, involved President Macron, Overseas Minister Naïma Moutchou and a range of French officials, meeting with leaders of five New Caledonian parliamentary groups: parties opposed to independence such as Les Loyalistes and Rassemblement-Les Républicains; Calédonie ensemble; Eveil Océanien; and the two pro-independence parties that make up the Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance parliamentary group (UNI).
However, the talks were boycotted by the Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS), the largest pro-independence coalition. The FLNKS rejected the Bougival text in August 2025 and continues to call for full and sovereign independence for New Caledonia. The FLNKS will hold a congress in late January or early February, to debate its response to the Elysée-Oudinot agreement and prepare for municipal and provincial elections this year.
Last week, before the talks, FLNKS President Christian Tein said: “Paris is deaf, it doesn’t want to hear anything, it only understands the balance of power, which is why we will not go to the meeting.”
For Tein, the central discussion is between the independence movement and the French State as colonising power: “The solution must be found here in our country, between the State and the FLNKS. We are open to discussion, and to an agreement, but for us, it’s the Kanaky Agreement.”
Unlike previous agreements for New Caledonia that have ended periods of conflict, such as the 1988 Matignon-Oudinot Accords and the 1998 Noumea Accord, the deal announced on 19 January has not succeeded in bringing together all supporters and opponents of independence. The very fact the new agreement is named after the Elysée – France’s presidential palace – and the headquarters of the Overseas Ministry in rue Oudinot highlights that this is a deal crafted in Paris, without the involvement of the main independence coalition.
This is a worrying sign that the French State will forge ahead with changes, which will likely be contested in both Paris and New Caledonia. When the French Government sought to legislate unilateral changes to voting rights in early 2024, it triggered six months of violent conflict in New Caledonia, with riots and clashes that left 15 dead, 6716 people taken into police custody, hundreds brought to trial, and the economy devastated, with a 13.5 per cent drop in GDP in 2024.
As the politicians met in Paris, New Caledonia’s gendarmerie commander General François Haouchine confirmed that 15 squadrons of mobile gendarmes from France were currently deployed in the islands, alongside 1200 local gendarmes and police.
Haouchine also noted that “the Director General of the National Gendarmerie keeps five mobile gendarmerie squadrons on permanent standby, ready to be deployed to New Caledonia in case of emergency or necessity.”
Elements of the agreement
The new Elysée-Oudinot Accord is designed to improve the draft Bougival text, negotiated in July last year.
At the time, Bougival was widely criticised for its lack of recognition of indigenous Kanak identity and culture – a central feature of the 1998 Noumea Accord that has been the framework for political, economic, and cultural life for more than a quarter of a century.
In response, the signatories to the new agreement “reaffirm their commitment to the principles of recognition of Kanak identity, as set out in the Noumea Accord… They recognise the importance of opening a new chapter in the development of New Caledonian identity, which has been taking shape since 1998, in order to enable all New Caledonians to form a people, rich in their unique identities and strong in their common identity.”
The July 2025 Bougival text proposed a “state within a state” through the creation of a State of New Caledonia within the French Republic. Over the weekend, there was extensive debate about the timing and restrictions on the transfer of the remaining sovereign powers from the French State to New Caledonia, such as authority over policing and courts, the currency, defence, and foreign affairs.
Three referendums on self-determination under the Noumea Accord were held in 2018-2021 about the transfer of these powers, but the Elysée-Oudinot Accord proposes to avoid a similar process, stating: “The exercise of the right to self-determination will be expressed through the permanent possibility of transferring powers still held by the French State within a framework organised with it, according to procedures guaranteeing the spirit of consensus, the requirement for reinforced majorities and the approval of a majority of New Caledonians.”
Under the Bougival text, the transfer of these powers will be complex, requiring a vote of nearly two-thirds of the Congress of New Caledonia. The wording of the Elysée-Oudinot Accord also suggests that the transfer of the remaining sovereign powers will not guarantee an automatic accession to sovereignty, with the agreement stating: “If all of the State’s sovereign powers were to be transferred to New Caledonia, the partners would meet to discuss the implications for the relationship between the State of New Caledonia and France.”
The latest talks also discussed economic and financial policy, to complement the changes to political institutions. Accompanying the text of the Elysée-Oudinot Accord, the leaders signed a separate statement of outcomes from Monday’s session devoted to economic and social issues and the nickel industry. In this document, the signatories “reaffirm their conviction that only a stable institutional situation offering long-term prospects for New Caledonia will enable sustainable economic growth, a return to balanced public finances in New Caledonia and new opportunities for all economic and social actors.”
The new agreement has responded to a key demand of the anti-independence Loyalist bloc, opening the way to increase the financial and administrative powers for the three provinces. This will affect the authority of the national Congress and Government of New Caledonia, with the new agreement stating that the laws required to implement Elysée-Oudinot “may provide for a new division of powers between New Caledonian institutions in order to promote economic attractiveness.”
Before Christmas, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu proposed an economic package for New Caledonia valued at 262 billion CFP Pacific francs (around 2.2 billion euros). However, the French State will require extensive fiscal and policy trade-offs from the Government and Congress of New Caledonia. These will likely require cuts to public sector employment, restructuring of state-owned enterprises, and reduction of social benefits – an austerity drive that will hit the most vulnerable members of the community, and may drive further social conflict.
Constitutional change
To replace the 1998 Noumea Accord, which is entrenched in the French Constitution, the Lecornu government must now seek parliamentary approval in Paris and then hold a referendum in New Caledonia.
The Elysée-Oudinot agreement states that the French government will seek to present a constitutional law to the French Senate in February, which must then go to the National Assembly in March or April. This would be followed by a joint sitting of both houses, known as the Congress of Versailles, before being submitted to the people of New Caledonia in June or July. Then, both houses of the French parliament would need to pass an organic law in September to enact the agreement and the outcome of the popular consultation.
This lengthy constitutional process will require the postponement – for the fourth time – of New Caledonian elections for the three provincial assemblies and national Congress, currently scheduled for May / June this year. The Accord says these local elections must now be held “before 31 December 2026.”
The current Congress of New Caledonia was elected in May 2019, so the repeated delay of local elections means that they will have been in office for more than seven years when elections are held later this year. This is a striking breach of democratic norms by the French State, which often proclaims that it respects the civic rights of New Caledonians.
There are other complications that may affect this timetable. The Lecornu government lacks a governing majority in the National Assembly and may face difficulties gaining the 3/5 majority required at the Congress of Versailles. If the constitutional reforms cannot be passed this year in Paris, France’s Conseil Constitutionnel confirmed last year that the electoral system and restricted voting rights created by the Noumea Accord remain in place.
After ramming his 2026 budget through the parliament on Tuesday without a vote – breaching a political commitment to only adopt the budget by negotiation – Prime Minister Lecornu now faces two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly. His dismissal and the possibility of new French elections this year could derail the New Caledonia reforms.
Before the constitutional changes, all French voters resident in New Caledonia went to the polls in March to elect local municipal councils – a period that will highlight shifting alliances across the political spectrum. With the FLNKS formally opposed to the Bougival text, the signing of the new agreement does not ensure an end to political tensions in New Caledonia.