PAPUA New Guinea is quickly losing control of its soaring population growth which threatens to outrun the country’s ability to provide for its people within five years.
Recent research shows that Papua New Guinea could have a population of 15 million by 2030 and predicts that the current infrastructure, health systems and labour markets cannot absorb this growth.
“Population growth is clearly out of control,” University of PNG economics lecturer Kingtau Mambon said in the report titled Unwanted births and fertility in Papua New Guinea.
The population is around 11 million, with over 60,000 unplanned births per year.
It is possible that PNG has already lost the battle and will lean heavily on donor support in the next decades despite its growing gas, timber, and mineral exports.
The treacherous terrain has prevented the extension of the road network which is necessary to open up land for the agriculture sector. It has also meant the inability to provide energy to remote villages in order to provide education, health services, and law and order.
Described as a ticking time bomb, the uncontrolled birth rates have been ascribed to four main factors:
- Limited access to family planning – only 37 per cent of women have access to contraceptives. In rural areas, contraceptives are particularly scarce — less than 35 per cent of women have access.
- Early marriage and teen pregnancies- For every 1000 girls, 65 began childbearing before their 20th birthday. This is the highest level in the region.
- Education gaps – On average, women with higher education marry at age 23.5 years compared to 18.4 for those with elementary education only. While studies show that completion of secondary schooling is the optimal level of education to delay women’s age at marriage and at first pregnancy, in PNG most girls do not attend secondary school.
- Cultural norms and demands – Families need labour to earn livelihoods. Children are seen as sources of labour and security in rural PNG so rural households tend to exhibit high fertility preferences.
Mambon’s research shows that PNG faces overcrowded hospitals and schools with about one doctor per 40,000 patients and one teacher per 60 students. One police officer serves 1800 citizens, leading to law and order issues.
And in urban centres, students graduate every year but there are too few jobs.
Mabon has suggested that for population growth to be placed on more sustainable path, the birth rate should truly reflect the optimal choices of households given their constraints.
“When families decide when to have children, these children are more likely to have a proper education, enjoy better health and grow up in households with less poverty,’’ Mambon said.
This would reduce additional pressures on the environment — and the economy.
“To sum up, PNG is already struggling to take care of its population,” Mambon said.
“Yet, every year it adds over 60,000 unplanned citizens to that population. The Department of Health Services clearly shows that women want fewer children than they are having now.
“Not helping them to close this gap would be a missed opportunity.’’
Unplanned fertility in PNG – according to Mambon’s research – is not evenly spread across the country. It varies sharply according to wealth, region and education.
Poorer households want larger families but overshoot those targets and the Highlands region has higher fertility preference but lower fertility outcome figures than the islands
The research showed that women with little or no schooling preferred around three children, while those with higher education prefer around two.
“Without decisive policy intervention, annual births would reach over 370,000 by 2050 under a conservative two per cent growth rate,’’ Mambon said.
“Family planning on its own is not enough to alter this trajectory in a meaningful way.’’
Mambon suggested that a combined approach of family planning with investments in education and later marriage would have a strong impact and contain annual births below 350,000 until midway through the century.
Until then, PNG’s time bomb continues to tick.
Additional sources: The National, Papua New Guinea and Devpolicy, Australia