Papua New Guinea’s Treasurer, Ian Ling-Stuckey says his country has not had “an economic crisis of such complexity or magnitude since World War 2.” Samoa’s finance minister Sili Epa Tuioti calls it a “social and economic tsunami.” The language being employed by institutions and governments in responding to the economic impact of COVID-19 stresses the historic moment we are living through.
The response of international organisations and donor partners to assist Pacific island economies has been swift, although details are still to be ironed out given the pace with which the pandemic is developing and morphing, and the pervasiveness of its impacts across the globe.
Central to that detail will be the form of that assistance; and whether it’s concessional loans, grants, debt forgiveness or a complex combination of all three and more.
What does the crisis mean for tourism, remittances, digital transformation and more? Get your copy of Islands Business to find out more.
Growth forecasts
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
Dependencies |
Stimulus package |
|
|
ADB Pacific member countries |
0.3 |
2.7 |
Fiscal stimulus measures across the region of at least 10% of GDP |
||
|
Cook Islands |
5.3 |
-2.2 |
1 |
Fiscal stimulus measures of approx. 50% of GDP |
US$34.7m |
|
Federated States of Micronesia |
3 |
1.6 -3 (WB) |
3 0.5 (WB) |
Pension fund reform New capital projects |
US$15m |
|
Fiji |
-4.9 -4.3 (WB) |
3 (ADB) 1.9 (WB) |
Improved business and investment climate Limit debt exposure Climate resilient infrastructure |
US$500 million |
|
|
French Polynesia |
US$280m |
||||
|
Kiribati |
2.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
Well managed, sustainable trust funds |
|
|
Marshall Islands |
3.8 |
2.5 -3 (WB) |
3.7 1 (WB) |
Pension fund reform Easing of restrictions on travel and transport |
|
|
Nauru |
1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
Well managed, sustainable trust funds |
|
|
Palau |
-3 |
-4.5 -6 (WB) |
1.2 0 (WB) |
Pension fund reform Tourism recovery |
|
|
PNG |
4.8 |
0.8 0.2 (WB) |
2.8 3.3 (WB) |
Good management of public debt |
US$1.6billion |
|
Samoa |
3.5 |
-3 -5 (WB) |
0.8 0 (WB) |
US$23.6milloon |
|
|
Solomon Islands |
2.6 |
1.5 -6.7 (WB) |
2.7 -0.3 (WB) |
Large infrastructure projects provide some buffer Reform of tax system |
|
|
Tonga |
3 |
0 0.5 (WB) |
2.5 3.2 (WB) |
Tourism recovery Accelerated rehabilitation and recovery post TC Gita |
US$25m |
|
Tuvalu |
4.1 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
Well managed, sustainable trust funds |
|
|
Vanuatu |
2.8 |
-1 -8 (WB) |
2.5 6 (WB) |
Benefits of labour mobility schemes are widespread, sustainable |
Source: ADB Outlook 2020, World Bank, national governments