Page 19 - IB November 2023

What the Boy Child Brings Us - El Niño and indicated that 4 - 8 severe tropical cyclones,
During the PICOF-13, the RCC-N partners

Implications for the Pacific this Season reaching category 3 or higher might occur
anywhere across the region.
Whilst the characteristics of El Niño events vary
Pacific Island Countries are known to host some of New Zealand Aid funded Climate and Ocean Support between countries in the Pacific, one thing for
the most memorable soirees during the festive season, Program in the Pacific (COSPPac). certain is that the impacts on all sectors, including
but are also the most vulnerable to extreme climatic Ironically, as the Pacific discussed the implications of agriculture, fisheries, health, tourism and
events during the same. the impacts of El Niño, Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly infrastructure among others, last beyond
El Niño (pronounced ‘el neen-yo’), literally means ‘the developed into a severe Category 5 system over the event and have cascading effects with
boy child’ in Spanish and was used by South American Vanuatu, reminding us that out-of-season and intense adverse economic implications.
fishermen in the 17th century, because it is linked to cyclones are one of the traits of the phenomenon. With the El Niño event we are
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, In the PICOF-13 Statement, all Pacific National currently experiencing,
which has the greatest impact on countries around the Meteorological Services reiterated that El Niño is agriculture, fisheries and
Equator. expected to continue through at least March 2024, water management are the
El Niño events occur when there is a decrease in the peaking in December 2023 or January 2024, and will main sectors that will be
strength and intensity of trade winds, which alters the likely be a strong event. affected. Impacts include the
position of the warm pool in the Western Equatorial Overall implications for the Pacific region indicate effect of marine heatwaves
Pacific, causing warmer than average ocean water to that there will be drier than normal conditions for on fisheries and the impact of extreme
migrate into the Central and Eastern Pacific, typically much of the off-equatorial North and South Pacific, temperatures and humidity on crops. The SST
resulting in above normal rainfall. The countries in between southern Papua New Guinea and Southern convergence zone that forms the boundary
the Western and off-Equatorial South Pacific, such French Polynesia, and between Palau and the of the Western Pacific warm pool is an
as Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga, tend to experience below northern Marshall Islands. Above normal rainfall will be important feature for tuna fisheries, with a
normal rainfall which sometimes leads to prolonged experienced by countries along the equator, extending high correlation to skipjack abundance,
drought events. from Eastern Papua New Guinea to the Line Islands of which could result in a higher than usual
Historically, El Nino events tend to be associated with Kiribati, including Nauru, Tokelau, and Tuvalu. tuna population around Kiribati.
hot days, cold nights, drought and flooding – the impacts Warmer than average sea surface temperatures El Niño cannot be avoided, but its
vary depending on which country you are in. The last (SSTs) will be experienced in most of the region, except adverse impacts can be reduced. All Pacific
significant El Niño event declared in the Pacific was in in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Niue, where near Islanders are encouraged to be vigilant
mid-2015 through early 2016. El Niño-like conditions in average conditions are likely. Slightly higher than and prepare, not just for tropical cyclones,
late 2019 and early 2020 caused some countries in the normal sea levels are predicted along the equator, but for flooding, coastal inundation and
Pacific to experience drought-like conditions. which may lead to a risk of coastal inundation around low rainfall leading to drought. For
In October, the Pacific Regional Climate Centre- Kiribati, especially during the highest tides. more detailed information regarding
Network convened the thirteenth Pacific Islands Climate In contrast, lower than normal sea levels are forecast your country, contact the National
Outlook Forum (PICOF-13) in Nadi, Fiji. PICOF-13 was for the western part of the region, near Palau, the Meteorological and Hydrological
well attended by over 105 participants, from 17 Pacific Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Services in-country, as they provide
Island Countries, with a focus on strengthening food Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands, which means frequent forecasts and alerts. King tide, Saleapaga, Samoa
security in the Pacific with climate services. PICOF-13 that the combination of lower sea levels and warm seas
is a joint event supported by the EU-funded Intra-ACP may lead to coral bleaching in these countries. Coral - By Patricia Mallam, for the World
Climate Services and Related Applications Programme bleaching may also occur in Tokelau, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Meteorological Organisation Regional
(Intra-ACP ClimSA) SPREP and the Australian and Northern Cook Islands, and Marshall Islands. Association-5, Pacific RCC-N

Decca Water Reserve, Kiritimati Atoll, Kiribati

Sponsored Content Sponsored Content
Islands Business, November 2023 19