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Regional Security Regional Security

climate resilience [and] adaptation [but] in the long run, it Island leaders are ramping up action, calling in the head
empowers the military. They’re going to have more power to of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, top
wield within our civilian politics. So, we’re going to have a Canadian environmentalist Tzeporah Berman, to help them
compounded militarisation of our politics in the foreseeable push the Port Vila Call further at this month’s Pacific Islands
future, which I would imagine would be the headache of any Forum Leaders meeting in the Cook Islands.
incoming Prime Minister.” “Australia hasn’t joined any of the formal multilateral
dialogues that have been hosted by Vanuatu or Tuvalu. Our
The climate factor expectation is that Australia will do everything they can to
Says former Fiji Ambassador and Permanent Representative make sure that this is not a robust discussion formally at the
to the UN, Dr Satyendra Prasad: “When Pacific leaders are Pacific Islands Forum,” Berman told Islands Business.
asked who they think is winning the contest between China Morgan believes there are economic reasons for optimism
and USA in the Pacific—they often reply that climate change about the chances of a transition, despite the powerful
is! Stated another way—both China and USA are losing.” domestic economic interests that hold firm sway over
Similarly, the Pacific Elders Voice (PEV) group of former Australia’s energy agenda.
Pacific Islands leaders recently stated that, “We are the “Australia can make a lot of money from a global clean
centre of strategic interests of larger countries who say we energy transition. We were the world’s quarry for coal and gas
are a priority, but we have yet to see what that practically and minerals. But even in the clean energy transition, we can
means for our people (especially in comparison to the costs of be the world’s quarry for critical minerals that are important
developing their war machines).” for electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines.
PEV notes that “It is no secret that Australia continues to be We are already the world’s largest exporter of lithium, a key
one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters and continues component in batteries. Recent estimates from Treasury in
to have one of the world’s largest per capita carbon pollution Australia suggest that our exports of lithium will be worth
footprints…We understand that Australia has failed to more than our exports of thermal coal by 2028. And that’s
represent Pacific interests through its advocacy as a member just one data point. But it speaks to a broader shift in our
of the Loss and Damage Transitional Committee, by its economic interests.”
opposition to the fund being part of the UNFCCC (and arguing
for the World Bank instead), as well as setting a financial goal Undue influence
for the fund. This goes against the Pacific interests, which is Fiji’s Prime Minister, Sitiveni Rabuka drew the ire of civil
part of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), currently society from across the region when he suggested during
Chaired by Samoa. AOSIS has been clear that the fund must a State visit to Australia last month that the Pacific take a
not be part of the World Bank.” ‘realistic’ approach towards Australian coal mining and gas
Griffith Asia Institute research fellow, Dr Wesley Morgan, production.
also considers climate action as key to Australian and US “It’s very clear that Australia is exerting undue influence
strategy in the Pacific Islands. and trying to weaken island nations’ positions on fossil fuels,”
“Strategic denial—limiting access to the region for other Berman told Islands Business in Suva. “And whether they’re
powers—is a longstanding policy goal for Australia in the successful in doing that remains to be seen. Who knows
Pacific,” Morgan told Islands Business. what was on the table for those discussions between Fiji
“This is because a major power with a presence in the and Australia? And that’s the problem. The fate of humanity
Pacific complicates security in the maritime approaches to should not be one of the many playing cards in a game of
Australia (especially in the event of conflict). Partly to limit foreign diplomacy.
China’s role in the region, Australia wants to be the Pacific’s “When the Port Vila core resolution came to be, we were
security partner of choice. But they’re not taking adequate at each ministerial follow-up. As we started to get closer to
action on the Pacific’s key security threat.” the Islands Leaders’ meeting with each ministerial [meeting],
Says Morgan: “This federal government set a new national we started noticing Australians making attempts to water
target to cut emissions by 2030 and that’s good. But we down the language of the Port Vila Call. The Call is a signal to
were just catching up on homework we hadn’t submitted these countries that change and a transition is coming and it’s
previously. inevitable. And I think those attempts at watering down the
“Our target to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 is still one of language have been a way to somehow slow it down.”
the weakest targets in the developed world.” Morgan points to the leverage Pacific Islands now have
In Vanuatu in March this year, Pacific Islands leaders because of the geostrategic competition between the
launched the Port Vila Call for a Just Transition to a Fossil Fuel superpowers, as the biggest pushback factor.
Free Pacific. Ministers from Fiji, Niue, Solomon Islands, Tonga, “You have these times when the Pacific works together to
Vanuatu and Tuvalu signed the document, which provides a achieve their goals. And the Pacific was pretty important for
clear framework for a just transition in the Pacific, and the the Paris Agreement in 2015,” says Morgan. “Will they actually
role of the international community in phasing out fossil shift Australia? I don’t know. But I know that the interest from
fuels and providing the finance and support needed for the
transition. Continued on page 39

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