Humanitarian action begins long before disaster strikes.
As the world marks World Humanitarian Day on 19 August, attention often turns to frontline responders who assist in crises.
One of those individuals is Dr Moleni Tu’uholoaki, an Oceanographer at the Pacific Community (SPC) and a graduate of The University of the South Pacific (USP), whose research is helping strengthen coastal inundation early warning systems across the Pacific.
For Dr Tu’uholoaki, this work is deeply personal. As a six-year-old, he stood in the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Isaac, one of the most devastating storms ever to strike Tonga.
He remembers seeing homes damaged, coconut trees snapped in half, and seawater pushing far inland into places where it had never reached before. Witnessing the destruction left a lasting impression and sparked a question that would shape his life’s work:
How can communities be better protected before disaster strikes?
That question would eventually lead him to a career in meteorology and oceanography, spending 19 years with the Tonga Meteorological Service, including more than a decade as Lead Forecaster responsible for issuing severe weather warnings.
Throughout his career, he stood on the frontline of disaster preparedness, helping communities navigate some of the region’s most severe weather events, including Tropical Cyclones Winston and Harold.
However, he recognised a significant gap.
While meteorological services could often predict where a cyclone was heading, communities needed more than information about a storm’s track and intensity. They needed to know how it would affect their homes, roads and communities, and whether they needed to evacuate. These are the questions that can save lives.
Dr. Moloni sharing valuable insights and expertise, inspiring positive change in our communities.
Driven by a desire to improve the information available to communities, Dr Tu’uholoaki pursued a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Oceanography, Meteorology and Climate Change at USP.Dr. Moloni sharing valuable insights and expertise, inspiring positive change in our communities.jpg
His doctoral research, titled Enhancing Coastal Inundation Early Warning Capacity for Tonga through Improved Tropical Cyclone Risk Knowledge, focused on strengthening the scientific foundations needed to improve coastal flooding forecasts and early warning systems.
The research examined how large-scale climate patterns influence tropical cyclone activity across the Southwest Pacific and investigated ways to better predict coastal flooding during severe weather events.
One of the study’s major findings was the influence of climate drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation on tropical cyclone formation, frequency, and intensity in the region.
The research also produced one of the first comprehensive tropical cyclone climatologies for Tonga.
By analysing five decades of cyclone records, Dr Tu’uholoaki found that Tonga experiences an average of 2.6 tropical cyclones per year, with nearly 40 per cent reaching severe hurricane strength.
Beyond understanding cyclone behaviour, the research tackled one of the Pacific’s most pressing humanitarian challenges: coastal inundation.
Using advanced modelling systems, Dr Tu’uholoaki demonstrated how storm surges, extreme waves, and coastal flooding can be simulated during major weather events, allowing forecasters to better understand how cyclones affect coastlines and nearby communities.
By supporting the development of impact-based forecasting, the research helps provide communities with information that is relevant, actionable, and potentially life-saving.
Rather than simply forecasting what a storm will do, impact-based forecasting helps explain what the storm will mean for people, homes, schools, hospitals, roads, and infrastructure.
For Pacific Island countries, this capability is becoming increasingly important.
Across the Blue Pacific, populations, critical infrastructure, and essential services are concentrated along coastlines. These same coastlines face growing risks from coastal flooding, sea-level rise, and increasingly damaging tropical cyclones.
Strengthening early warning systems is widely recognised as one of the most effective ways to reduce disaster impacts and improve community resilience.
Although focused on Tonga, the methodologies and findings have broader relevance for Pacific Island countries facing similar challenges. The research provides a framework that can be adapted across the region to strengthen coastal inundation forecasting, disaster preparedness, and multi-hazard early warning systems.
For Dr Tu’uholoaki, the purpose of science has always been clear.
It is about protecting people.
Today, as an Oceanographer with the Pacific Community (SPC), Dr Tu’uholoaki continues to contribute to regional efforts aimed at strengthening climate resilience, ocean governance, and disaster preparedness across the Blue Pacific.
Through science, forecasting, and a commitment to protecting Pacific communities, Dr Moleni Tu’uholoaki is helping build a future where more people are warned in time, more communities are prepared, and more lives are protected when the next great storm approaches.
Pacific communities draw on local knowledge, preparedness and science to strengthen climate resilience.
