Page 25 - IB February 2025

Analysis Analysis

announced a review of aid to the country after its President, responsibility for meetings with foreign dignitaries. Even
Taneti Maamau cancelled a scheduled meeting. In February, when the borders are open, the present Kiribati government is
Peters criticised the Cook Islands Prime Minister’s decision to reluctant to allow Western diplomats to meet with opposition
sign a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ agreement with leaders.
China, without consultation with Wellington, claiming this to Kiribati has been witnessing an authoritarian drift: with
be a breach of that country’s free association agreement with the suspension of the Chief Justice in June 2022 and then
New Zealand. of three Court of Appeal judges in September of that year.
That controversy came on the heels of a December dispute The Opposition was blocked from fielding a candidate in the
about whether the Cook Islands might issue its own passports, October 2024 presidential election.
which Wellington traditionally opposes on the grounds that Taneti Maamau first became President in 2016, promising to
Cook Islanders automatically acquire New Zealand citizenship. prioritise domestic issues and economic development through
The Kiribati scrap was an unusual affair. On Tarawa, the his KV20 20-year vision. He was critical of his predecessor,
President’s office said that President Maamau had been drawn Anote Tong, for allegedly spending too much time on the
away to attend a Catholic ordination on his home island of international stage promoting climate change awareness.
Onotoa, but that event turned out to have taken place on Whereas Tong accepted that his people might ultimately
11-12th January, ten days prior to the scheduled meeting with need to migrate, President Maamau told The Guardian in
New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister. 2020 that he planned to tackle sea-level rise by dredging
For the Kiribati Head of State to have met with a less lagoons to build up sea defences and was exploring replacing
senior figure in New Zealand’s government hierarchy would the Japanese-built Nippon causeway on South Tarawa with
defy ‘established protocol’, argued one Kiribati MP, alleging a long bridge comparable to the one built by China Harbour
that the New Zealand stance was ‘disrespectful of Kiribati Engineering in the Maldives.
sovereignty’. After all, just a week earlier, Australia’s visiting He expects significant gains from the Beijing connections,
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, had raised no public but so far, China’s assistance has been modest, aside from
objection to meeting instead with the Kiribati Vice-President. the US$28.7 million allocated for the purchase of Embraer
New Zealand diplomats responded that the two encounters aircraft, which are manufactured by a Brazilian firm that
were quite different: President Maamau also holds the foreign partners with Chinese contractors. The second of these
affairs portfolio and so this would have been a meeting aircraft has yet to be delivered.
between diplomatic counterparts. According to the Lowy Institute’s database, New Zealand
What was not explained was why the Kiribati President aid to Kiribati from 2019 to the latest available year,
chose not to meet Peters and why New Zealand’s foreign 2022 (US$65.8m), puts it slightly ahead of aid from China
minister made such a public fuss about it. After all, (US$64.1m).
misunderstandings are common in the diplomatic world. The This is Winston Peters’ third stint as foreign minister.
musty corridors of power abound with failed liaisons, cultural Previously, he served in the role as part of Jacinda Ardern’s
confusions, and bizarre personality clashes. 2017-20 Labour government assuming responsibility for the
Many pointed to the Kiribati switch of diplomatic links from much-vaunted ‘Pacific reset’. Now he returns to the same
Taiwan to China in September 2019, claiming that the latest portfolio but in a right-wing coalition committed to spending
tiff with New Zealand reflected Beijing’s expanding influence. cuts and to beefing up New Zealand’s defence posture.
That 2019 switch was itself preceded by a diplomatic Since resuming the role, he has visited every one of the
misunderstanding: Maamau had been miffed about then- Pacific Islands Forum countries … except Kiribati. The bust-up
Taiwan president Tsai Ing-Wen not visiting Kiribati while about the cancelled January visit, his office explains, came
on a March 2019 Pacific tour. Kiribati’s troubled regional after repeated efforts to set up a high-level meeting. Peters
relationships continued thereafter, with a withdrawal from says it prevents adequate consultation over ‘joint priorities
the Pacific Islands Forum in 2022, which was only reversed for our development program’.
after some careful statecraft by Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni That may be true, but it doesn’t explain why one would
Rabuka in early 2023. broadcast the dispute in the media. Already, what TVNZ at
Maamau’s New Zealand snub echoed a broader reaction, first announced as a ‘halt’ in aid to Kiribati has been recast
which was at least in part a response to international pressure as a ‘review’, and officials are predictably walking back the
aimed at drawing Kiribati back into the Western orbit in the initial angry response. Expect little or no interruption in New
wake of the 2019 diplomatic switch. Zealand’s average annual aid flows to Kiribati.
Ahead of the August 2024 general election, the Maamau
caretaker administration announced a moratorium on all Jon Fraenkel is a Professor of Comparative Politics at Victoria
diplomatic arrivals, which endured through the October University of Wellington, New Zealand.
presidential election.
Only in early 2025 was that suspension eased, but with
President Maamau still preferring that other ministers take

Islands Business, February 2025 25