Page 23 - IB December 2024

Analysis Analysis

in Marshall Islands).
As China and North Korea target US military bases on
Guam, the United States is dispersing forces across
Micronesia, rebuilding World War Two airstrips in Palau,
CNMI and Federated States of Micronesia, and rotating US
Marines and B-52H bombers through northern Australia.
Senior Trump advisers have also called for the
modernisation of the US nuclear arsenal and the stationing
of nuclear weapons in allied nations around the Indo-
Pacific – a stark contrast to widespread regional support for
nuclear disarmament and Forum proposals to establish the
Pacific as an “Ocean of Peace”.
Eleven Forum member countries and many ASEAN nations
have signed and ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of
Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The Australian Labor Party has a
policy pledging to sign the TPNW, but that is now unlikely
as Trump enters office and the Albanese Labor government US President Donald Trump met with Presidents Hilda Heine, David Panuelo, and
Tommy Remengesau in 2019.
heads to national elections before May.

5) Working with Pacific civil society threatens us and our allies.”
Worried that some Pacific governments are too closely While there is bipartisan support for AUKUS in Washington,
aligned with China, the United States has often seen civil Trump is fixated on the need for allies to pay more for
society organisations and local media as a counterweight. US partnership. Trump has repeatedly said that allied
Washington and its allies have ramped up “soft power” nations in Europe and Asia—including Taiwan—“should pay
funding for community organisations, hoping they’ll us for their defence”. This transactional style of politics
monitor and contest Beijing’s partnerships with Pacific will complicate relations with NATO and AUKUS partners.
governments. Already, Australia has committed AU$$4 billion to both
As one example, the US State Department runs an Indo- UK and US shipyards as a downpayment to speed up the
Pacific Media Advancement Program, which includes a construction of submarines, with growing uncertainty if the
two-year, US$2 million “Countering PRC Influence Grant US will deliver promised Virginia-class nuclear submarines.
program” – the name says it all. Behind the rhetoric Given his reputation as a dealmaker, analysts suggest
of press freedom, the US wants regional journalists to Trump may play hardball with Canberra, seeking to
focus more on elite corruption than Washington’s climate renegotiate the AUKUS agreement and seek greater
policies. Australian financial contributions. Already committed
In November, Democrat Congressman Ed Case (a co- to the 2021 AUKUS agreement signed with Joe Biden,
founder of the House of Representatives Pacific Islands Canberra will be reluctant to anger President Trump in case
Caucus) introduced the “Engage the Pacific Act” before he ramps up the costs of the proposed purchase of nuclear
the US legislature. The bill would require the Secretary of submarines for the Australian Defence Force (ADF).
State, Secretary of Defence, and USAID administrator to The Luxon government in New Zealand has also debated
establish a “Committee on Engagement with Civil Society joining Pillar Two of the AUKUS agreement on technology
Organisations in the Pacific Islands”. transfer, critical minerals and artificial intelligence.
Many under-resourced community organisations, publishers However on 1 December, NZ Labour leader Chris Hipkins
and journalists around the region will face the traditional said: “Our country has a fiercely independent foreign
dilemma when offered more US aid with strings attached: policy, and a Government I lead will not join Pillars One or
do you take the money and run, or stay pure and poor? Two of AUKUS.”
(Editor’s note: Islands Business receives grants from US The US has also been negotiating the new military and
government-backed media funds.) security agreements with larger Forum Island countries
like Papua New Guinea and Fiji. PNG Foreign Minister
6) What role for the largest Forum members? Justin Tkatchenko confirmed that a 2023 US-PNG military
Trump’s candidate for Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreement was accompanied by a pledge of US$3.5 billion
has previously called on Australia “to maintain a robust in infrastructure, equipment and training.
approach on China” through AUKUS. He has also called on All in all, there are stormy times ahead. The Trump
Canberra to extend its diplomacy in the Pacific Islands, administration will pledge solidarity with island states,
noting: “it will be more important than ever for the United but its opposition to climate action, international law
States to work closely with Australia to prevent the Chinese and demilitarisation will be a major threat to Blue Pacific
Communist Party from establishing a military presence that aspirations.

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