Page 20 - IB December 2024

Analysis Analysis

INDO-PACIFIC TRUMPS BLUE PACIFIC

Trump will clash with Forum members on climate policy.

On 20 January, US President-elect Donald Trump will be the White House National Security Council (NSC) appointed
sworn into office. The US Republican leader has pledged Alexander Gray as the NSC director for Oceania and Indo-
engagement with island states, particularly in the northern Pacific Security. It was the first time any US administration
Pacific. But at a time of heightened US-China strategic had appointed an NSC official responsible not only for
competition, Trump’s second term will be a rollercoaster for Australia and New Zealand, but also the Pacific Islands.
the islands’ region. Trump’s 2018 “US Strategic Framework for the Indo-
Given his track record and recent campaign statements, Pacific” promoted strategic competition with China and
there are many Trump policies that will clash with the Forum’s strengthened ties to India, Japan, Korea and Australia. It
Blue Pacific 2050 Strategy, especially on climate change. also pledged to “ensure the Pacific Islands (e.g., the US
Above all, any engagement with Forum member countries will territories, Freely Associated States, the Melanesian and
be framed through the geopolitical contest with Beijing. Indo- Polynesian states) remain aligned with the United States.”
Pacific trumps Blue Pacific. The strategy called for greater efforts to “solidify our
Here are six areas to watch in 2025, as the second Trump diplomatic, military, intelligence, economic, development
presidency gets underway. assistance, and informational advantages across the Pacific
1) US engagement Islands”.
During Trump’s first presidency between 2016 and 2020, In response, the Trump administration launched a series
there was a surprising focus on the Pacific Islands. In 2018, of initiatives across the islands, proposing new diplomatic

20 Islands Business, December 2024