Page 38 - IB June July 2024

Analysis Analysis

experience to the table. Over a long career, Teo has served New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Indonesia have
as Deputy Secretary General of the Forum, Director General worked hard to water down many regional initiatives. The
of the Forum Fisheries Agency and Executive Director of the Forum has decided to lobby Indonesia on human rights but not
Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission. self-determination - a ridiculous compromise that suggests
self-determination is not a central principle of international
Regional architecture human rights law. Beyond this, Indonesia’s ongoing refusal to
As he welcomed delegations to the Apia Forum in 2017, address Forum calls for United Nations access to West Papua
then-Prime Minister Tuilaepa proposed “the Blue Pacific” as has undercut this wishy-washy policy.
a framework to bring together agendas around sustainable Speaking to journalists recently, Waqa described continued
development, oceans, climate and governance. At the 2022 violence and unrest in West Papua as a “very concerning issue
Forum in Suva, leaders formally adopted the ‘2050 Strategy for everyone.” He acknowledged the request from Forum
for a Blue Pacific Continent’. Last year in Rarotonga, they leaders to the Indonesian government for a formal visit to
endorsed an ambitious implementation plan, to set priorities West Papua to assess the situation.
for regional co-operation. In Tonga, leaders will be presented “Hopefully, we will get Indonesia to agree to something,”
with a baseline report against which implementation of the he said. “I believe that Indonesia will see this as important,
strategy will be measured in future years. that they maintain peace in that region while all this will play
Over more than seven years, the extensive consultations out.”
required to develop the 2050 Strategy chewed up a lot of staff Pacific leaders can play a significant diplomatic role on
time for the Forum Secretariat and member governments. self-determination (as shown with ministerial missions to New
This has delayed completion of another key regional Caledonia), and there is growing interest from other US and
initiative: the Review of Regional Architecture (RRA), which French territories to upgrade their status in the Forum. But
seeks to better co-ordinate operations amongst members of all too often, the quietly, quietly deals required to placate
the Council of Regional Organisations of the Pacific (CROP) Australia, France or Indonesia have undercut strong action on
and other partners. This year’s summit will likely receive an the fundamental issue of decolonisation. The recent explosion
interim update report on the RRA, but there’s more work still in New Caledonia will be a crucial test this year: will the
to go. Forum step up to challenge France as a European colonial
The reconciliation with the Micronesian Presidents’ power, rather than “a Pacific nation”?
Summit (MPS) states added new complexity to the regional
architecture, with the separation of the Office of the Pacific Engaging with partners
Oceans Commissioner (OPOC) from the Forum Secretariat At a time of intense geopolitical competition between
and establishment of a new subregional Forum office for the United States, China and other global powers, there
Micronesia. is a queue of governments wanting to engage with Forum
While extending outreach into the Northern Pacific, these island states. There are currently 21 countries serving as
new offices add significantly to cost and staffing, raising the Forum Dialogue Partners (FDPs), along with numerous other
obvious question: who will pay the bill? As they bankroll these observers, such as the Commonwealth, World Bank, Asian
new initiatives, the largest Forum members Australia and New Development Bank and more. There are another six countries
Zealand—along with other wealthy geopolitical partners—will currently requesting FDP status (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine,
seek to increase their influence over regional agendas (much Denmark, Ecuador and Portugal), although last year’s
as they would deny this). As the old Scottish saying goes: “He Forum leaders agreed to defer their applications until the
who pays the piper calls the tune.” completion of the Review of Regional Architecture.
At this year’s summit in Tonga, Forum members may
Regional versus national consider new options to engage with such a diverse range of
Forum members are sovereign states, and each leader must countries. One model is an ASEAN-style two tier membership
balance his or her commitment to the region with national for dialogue partners. The premier league would include
interests (as well as the driving imperative to get re-elected). major regional players (such as the United States, China, the
regional champion Transform Aqorau). European Union, France and Japan) while the minor league
There are a growing number of wicked policy dilemmas powers (Great Britain, Thailand, Italy and Türkiye and more)
that divide Forum member countries, requiring uneasy sit in the second division.
compromises at the annual summits. Beyond long-standing Another reality is that major powers constantly try to
tensions with Australia over climate policy, there are sharp circumvent the Forum and undercut regional unity. For
debates over deep sea mining (DSM). It’s notable that some the United States, China or Australia, there are multiple
of the strongest DSM champions include the new Secretary leverage points to influence policy (such as funding for NGOs,
General and the outgoing and incoming Forum Chairs, paying for consultants and technical assistance on favoured
ensuring this year will see lively debate with civil society programs, bilateral grants to governments, or leaping over
groups that want a complete ban on deep sea mining. the Forum and CROP agencies to allocate resources through
Another example is the uneasy compromise over the right to multilateral banks or UN agencies).
self-determination for West Papua: diplomats from Australia, For example, this year Australia is proposing a Pacific

38 Islands Business, June/July 2024