Page 20 - IB January 2024

COP28 COP28

SHORT OF THE FINISH LINE

By Richard Naidu wrangling and obfuscation, bringing things to a halt, or
making things more complicated by insisting on separate
After almost 30 years of haggling over the planet’s future at agenda items or equal coverage for all issues.
COP meetings, climate activists descended on COP28 in Dubai “In terms of the COP28 outcomes, I was not surprised, as
in December, intent on achieving the phasing out of fossil this attrition on ambition has been going on since Paris. At
fuels. the same time, the science has become much more accurate
Instead, the meeting approved a roadmap for “transitioning and acute, which has created a whole new drive from the
away from fossil fuels”, stopping short of agreeing to the opposition to undermine science in subtle ways rather than
phaseout of oil, coal and gas. The meeting pushed into the frontal assaults in the past. The COP28 outcomes are not
overtime over intense overnight negotiations on the fossil fuel all entirely bad. You can find glimmers of promise in many of
wording. the decisions, and there are opportunities for the Pacific to
The inclusion of language around a move away from fossil utilise the decisions in our bilateral and finance negotiations
fuels in a COP agreement is a first, nevertheless. with partners. But it is a concern that we cannot get
In the words of United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell, consensus around ambitious emissions reductions and fossil
while genuine strides forward were made at COP28, the fuel phase-out.”
outcome is “a climate action lifeline, not a finish line.”
Islands Business: What do you put down the COP28
Pacific reactions outcomes to? Is it a case of being outnumbered by the fossil
Espen Ronin is described as the “dinosaur” of COP. He has fuel lobbyists and do you think the Pacific tried hard enough
been involved in the United Nations Framework Convention and/or was organised enough?
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process since 1992 and attended “The Pacific was well organised and vocal but were not
COP1 in Berlin in 1995. He is Senior Adviser, Climate Change able to get stronger backing from those who know, or should
Multilateral Agreements for the Pacific Community (SPC) and know, better. Developed countries were only supportive up
attended COP28 as a technical adviser to the Marshall Islands. to a point, and some developing countries keep being swayed
In the past, he has been a negotiator for Marshall Islands, by the false narratives offered by the opposition. We also
technical adviser for the United Nations, and technical now have an exceptional cadre of young, well educated and
adviser for the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment trained climate change officials, who did not back down and
Programme (SPREP). who stayed into the late hours to fight. Our marginalisation
He shares his insights into COP28. came to the fore in the way the Presidency decided to run the
last few days of the meeting, but the decisions taken could
Islands Business: You have the benefit of long-term not have gone through without the acquiescence of larger
perspective on the COP meetings. How do you see the developed and developing countries.”
outcomes of COP28?
“It was a very different experience to what it has developed Islands Business: Was there realistically any possibility of
into now. At COP1, we were just one or two delegates from the Pacific achieving the kind of objectives it aimed for?
each of the Pacific Island Countries, with a couple of advisers “We are always realistic in that we know it is a consensus
from SPREP (Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment process, that we cannot walk away as there is no other
Programme) and PIFS (Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat). So, means or process for dealing with climate change at the
from around 600 delegates in total [COP1] to 90,000 plus in international level. While we discuss red lines, we are
Dubai [COP28] is one big change. Another change is the length cognisant that we can only use our political capital so much.
of the agenda. At COP1, there was a single finance agenda It was a win to get the loss and damage funding agreed at
item. In Dubai, there were 18. The process has expanded so the start, and there are some other key decision parts that
dramatically, with countries having to commit massive human we will use to our advantage. We have to be patient, chip
resources, while at the same time civil society and industry away at objections with realism, science and logic, and try
are also clamouring for our attention. to present our situations in the region in such a way that
“Another change has been in the manner that climate constituents in objecting countries force changes in their
change doubters/deniers and oil interests are negotiating. countries’ policies on climate change. Recall that loss and
While in the past they have had easily identifiable oil barons damage, in the form of climate change insurance, was
and dodgy lobbyists, today they are well educated, slick introduced as a proposal in 1991 by Vanuatu on behalf of
talking and if you shut your eyes you’d think they were AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States).”
climate warriors since they have appropriated the terminology The role of civil society in climate negotiations is
and phrases that we utilise, just for the wrong purposes. The increasingly important, although the battle for access in the
opposition has also become extremely good at procedural rooms that matter continues.

20 Islands Business, January 2024