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nation heads into elections in the latter part of this year. Indonesia an associate member in 2015.
There’s speculation that China may have influenced politicians Throughout 2024, Pacific governments and civil society
into defeating the initial parliamentary vote on the issue. will also monitor the US presidential campaign. Seeking re-
election, President Joe Biden is the current candidate of the
Elections Democratic Party, while Donald Trump is the likely Republican
There will be several elections across the Pacific throughout nominee, despite his 91 felony charges. Across the Pacific,
2024, with broader implications for regional affairs. many will be concerned that dysfunction in the US Congress,
On 24 January, the people of Tuvalu go to the polls and war in Ukraine and Palestine, and a brutal political campaign
many candidates are debating the Falepili Union, the new will divert attention from the region’s key priorities around
security treaty signed with Australia. The outgoing Natano climate change, development, and the oceans. The possibility
government has highlighted the benefits of greater visa of a Trump victory will affect investment, trade, and security
access to Australia, while Opposition leader Enele Sopoaga partnerships, while island nations still have bitter memories
has condemned the perceived loss of sovereignty under the of his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate
agreement’s security provisions. The new parliament must Change in 2017.
ratify the treaty, which Canberra sees as a model for other
smaller island states. Climate Change
After the success of the 2023 Pacific Games, Solomon It looks like another lost year on climate change, despite
Islands will also move to national elections. Prime Minister the need for urgent action on emissions. Some governments
Manasseh Sogavare, named as Islands Business’ Pacific Person and investors will sit on their hands to await the outcome of
of the Year, is a polarising figure and the elections will be the US elections and China’s response, even as the priorities
hard fought. Whatever the result, the poll will receive of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed
international media attention, albeit through the prism of US- Countries (LDCs) are being submerged.
China strategic competition rather than the concerns of the For the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), COP28 left a
local population. bitter taste. Despite some steps forward (such as the new Loss
The Kiribati Presidential elections are expected by June. and Damage Fund), the outcomes of the global climate talks
New Caledonia is also scheduled to hold elections in left far too many loopholes, allowing fossil fuel corporations
May for three provincial assemblies and national Congress. to maintain business as usual, AOSIS says. The failure of
However, the polls may be delayed until later in the year, industrialised nations to fully meet their obligations for
as French President Emmanuel Macron considers changes to emissions reductions, climate finance and technical assistance
the electoral rolls (which currently restrict voting for the continue to rankle, even as financial resources and diplomatic
local institutions to New Caledonian citizens rather than all bandwidth focus on tensions in the South China Sea and
French nationals). Key members of the FLNKS independence warfare in Europe and the Middle East.
movement are wary of the new laws that could bring tens of Throughout the year, Australia will try to rally more Pacific
thousands more French voters to the polls. involvement in its bid to host COP31 in 2026, in competition
President Macron is desperately trying to rally the numbers with Türkiye. In turn, Pacific governments will continue to
in France’s parliament to allow changes to the 1998 Noumea push the largest Forum member for improved climate finance,
Accord and open the way for a new political statute for New stronger emissions targets, and action on fossil fuel subsidies.
Caledonia. Neighbouring Melanesian countries that support They’ll also be watching the new Luxon government in
the Kanak independence movement will be watching to see Wellington, to see what priority Aotearoa-New Zealand places
if France tries to ram through changes without a consensus of on Pacific climate and development agendas.
supporters and opponents of independence. At the same time, Incoming Secretary General Baron Waqa of Nauru will
Canberra is seeking greater Indo-Pacific military cooperation take up his post at the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat
with Paris, with no pressure on France to meet its obligations (PIFS) in February. PIFS will focus on bedding down the 2050
on decolonisation. Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, after adopting an
Pacific Rim elections will also have regional impacts. implementation plan at last year’s summit in Rarotonga.
Indonesia will hold presidential and parliamentary elections Despite musical chairs in Port Vila, the Vanuatu government
in February, with the Gerindra party led by Prabowo Subianto will continue to mobilise support for its campaign around
leading in the polls. As Indonesia’s outgoing Minister of an advisory opinion on climate change and human rights
Defence, Prabowo faces allegations of war crimes during at the International Court of Justice, with the deadline for
his past service as a Lieutenant General in Timor-Leste and submissions extended to 24 March.
West Papua, as well as for the abduction and torture of pro- After delays due to COVID and the Maui fires, Hawai’i will
democracy activists in 1997. The election of a conservative forge ahead to host the Festival of Pacific Arts (FestPAC)
President and parliament in Jakarta may expand ongoing in June. And what better symbol for the resilience of the
human rights abuses by military and police forces in West region, than to showcase the strength and vibrancy of Pacific
Papua. If there’s a Prabowo victory, members of the cultures?
Melanesian Spearhead Group may rue the day they made

Islands Business, January 2024 17