Page 26 - Islands Business February 2023

Opinion Opinion

PROBING POLITICAL ANALYSIS

NEEDED FOR 2050 STRATEGY

By Kaliopate Tavola and any other of the 16 delegated equally-important tasks
under the Plan, political economists have to be aware of
Work on the Pacific Islands Forum 2050 Strategy’s imple- competing ideas and interests, values and preferences of PIF
mentation and monitoring plan, and review of regional archi- members. There is contrasting diversity within PIF member-
tecture, would have started after the Strategy was launched ship of equals. Diplomacy of the highest order will be in great
at the 51st Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting in Suva on demand.
11-14 July 2022. When it comes to the Pacific Labour Scheme, for example,
The political economists amongst the region’s brains trust, political economists and others must be aware of the specific-
collaborating on this important task, would have started their ity of contrasting views and demands of members – suppliers
undertaking with gusto and with their usual regional flair and of the labour resources as against the demanders of these
conviviality. Given the high ambitions of the PIF ‘Leaders’ resources. The interests of all parties, including the interme-
Vision for 2050’, its values, the leaders’ own commitments diary service providers, must be met. Furthermore, reported
to the Strategy and its thematic areas, the region’s political exploitation of the system must be nipped in the bud. This
economists need to further up their game – their levels of also applies when it comes to consideration of the region’s
political analyses—to render the Strategy and its tools a bet- tuna fishery resources.
ter handle for Pacific regionalism to meet the demands of the All 16 tasks to populate the Plan are of equal value and are
21st century. to be treated with care. One cannot risk anyone of them be-
The general scope of work by political economists, in the ing trivialised.
context of regionalism as a whole, has indeed been looking Conflicts can arise when it comes to ‘identifying the inter-
up since the 1990s. Their ‘first generation’ work, according to linkages across all thematic areas’ under the Plan, or their
Messrs David Hudson and Adrian Leftwich (From Political Econ- ‘basis for monitoring and measuring progress’ or ‘ensuring
omy to Political Analysis), addressed issues of governance and coordination with timelines’. These conflicts must be negoti-
especially the reasons for the absence of good governance. ated with tact and equity. There may be pressure for bargains
Whilst such work continues, a ‘second generation’ of work to be struck. Conformity, for example, with existing formal
has emerged. This brought politics into the analyses ‘with a and informal political settlements, alliances and coalitions,
greater emphasis on historical, structural, institutional and may be in question and thus in jeopardy.
political elements that shaped the context within which ac- It becomes critical, therefore, to take stock of the original
tors worked.’ ideas that gave rise to these alliances and coalitions. Ask the
A ‘third generation’, recently emerged, combining elements questions: whose ideas and interests are being promoted?
from the previous two. It “has come to be strongly influenced Have the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) assumed full agency
by assumptions, concepts and methods drawn from econom- in the conceptualisation and determination of these alliances
ics. It emphasizes the way in which institutional incentives and coalitions? What are the subtle undercurrents behind
shape behaviour to produce positive or dysfunctional develop- building and sustaining these coalitions?
ment outcomes. In short, political economy has come to be We need to be aware always that there are other ideas
the economics of politics, and less about political analysis,” waiting in the wings to be raised for consideration – some-
write Hudson and Leftwich. times when you least expect them. In 2017, for example,
Notwithstanding such elaboration, political economy work Greg Colton suggested for Australia “to forge free compact
still has a number of limitations. Admittedly, key analytical agreements in the Pacific.” In 2019, former Australian Prime
concepts like institutions, structure, agency, ideas, con- Minister Kevin Rudd suggested a sovereignty for exclusive eco-
tingency and, above all, power, need to be applied more nomic zone swap between Australia and the Pacific through
systematically. Current usage tends to provide for lumpy, entering into a formal constitutional condominium agree-
one-dimensional analysis. It does not allow analysts or policy ment. Under such an agreement, Pacific peoples would get
makers to reach the detailed inner politics that shapes or Australian citizenship while Australia “would become respon-
frustrates change. sible for their territorial seas, their vast Exclusive Economic
A more in-depth political analysis approach would tend to Zones, including the preservation of their precious fisheries
take politics, power and agency much more seriously. This reserves.”
‘enables one to dig down to the level of messy everyday These ideas are not made in jest. There is sincerity behind
politics.’ With such orientation, political economists can help them. Australian journalist Bruce Hill suggested that such a
craft the 2050 Strategy’s Implementation and Monitoring Plan deal makes sense because “You can’t eat sovereignty, you
and the Regional Architecture with dexterity and foresight. can’t drink independence, and you can’t build a house on a
As regards the former, and specifically when ensuring effec- flag floating in the middle of the ocean.” Then in 2020, ANU
tive delivery of the Strategy or achieving the Leaders Vision academic John Blaxland reinforced both Colton and Rudd’s

26 Islands Business, February 2023