Page 26 - IB November 2023

El Niño El Niño

The impact of Cyclone Ita on Honiara, Solomon Islands in 2014. Photo: Asian Development Bank

PACIFIC PREPARES FOR EL NIÑO

By Kite Pareti “When there are changes to rainfall and temperatures
in the long term, all sectors such as agriculture, water,
As the South Pacific enters its cyclone season, Pacific Island health, infrastructure, fisheries, tourism and aviation will be
countries are also preparing themselves for warmer and affected. There will be cascading impacts as well that we
wetter conditions caused by an El Niño. need to prepare for,” added Malsale.
In July, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric “Agriculture and water are the two main sectors that will
Administration (NOAA) warned there is a one-in-five chance be affected during this El Niño event and it will impact the
that this El Niño event will be of “historic” strength, rivalling economy forecast for each country in the next 12 months.”
the major one experienced in 1997 that caused widespread He noted: “Each El Niño event is different and so are the
drought, flooding, and other natural disasters all over the impacts. The impacts can continue until the dry season in
world. the Pacific in April next year. This will be worse for countries
“It will more likely strengthen throughout the year, with an which will experience cyclones in the 2023/24 season.”
81% chance it will peak with a ‘moderate to strong intensity’ Stronger tropical cyclones are forecast for the upcoming
between November 2023 and January 2024,” said NOAA. cyclone season. The National Institute of Water and
With Pacific Island countries already grappling with climate Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand said it expects
change, Philip Malsale, a climatologist with the Secretariat of nine to 14 cyclones this season—nine being the long-term
the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), clarified average.
that El Niño events can be affected by climate change through NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook said
long-term changes in average rainfall and temperature. Vanuatu, Fiji and the northern Cook Islands all had an
“Climate change occurs over decades, centuries or longer, elevated risk of cyclone activity.
as a result of both natural and man-made processes. It can Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, and Tonga are expected to see
mean the occurrence of extreme events such as tropical between three to four cyclones, while the Cook Islands, Niue,
cyclones and droughts,” Malsale told Islands Business. Samoa, and Tokelau can expect two to three.
He said most Pacific Island countries will be affected by the On the sidelines of Fiji’s national tsunami simulation drill
El Niño in the next three months. last month, Fiji’s Minister for Rural and Maritime Development

26 Islands Business, November 2023