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addressed,” David Guyenne said. “Right now, insurance rise to a 1000 by year’s end”. This is around 20% of the union
companies are not covering the risk of riot damage. Some of confederation’s membership.
them will no longer provide cover for professional staff. This
is a problem, because in the French system, you can’t take Shrinking population
out bank loans without insurance. So that’s a major, major For many years, the political crisis over New Caledonian
concern. We know that around €1 billion of funds are to be voting rights and self-determination has impacted broader
paid out by insurance companies, but they still have not paid demographic trends, with thousands of French nationals
the claims.” emigrating over the last decade.
At the Kenu-In Commercial Centre—burnt out by arson A 2020 ISEE-NC population study documented a stream
attacks—business owner Frederique Pentecost said: “There’s of departures from New Caledonia between the national
huge destruction and we’re not very well insured because censuses in 2014 and 2019 – a trend that has continued since
we never thought that everything at once would disappear – then. The study notes: “Between 2014-19, 27,600 people who
maybe one shop or two shops, but not everything together. lived in New Caledonia in 2014 left the archipelago (i.e., 1 in
We’re not sure yet if we’re able to rebuild.” 10 inhabitants) … The apparent migratory balance is in deficit
by 10,300 people between 2014 and 2019 (i.e., 2000 net
Nickel crisis: A perfect storm departures per year).”
After Australian, New Zealand and French tourists were New Caledonia’s population peaked in 2019 at 271,285,
evacuated in June, the tourism industry has not fully dropping to 268,510 by 2023. Some of those leaving were New
recovered. For months, many hotels have survived by housing Caledonians seeking greener pastures, but as ISEE reported,
the thousands of French police deployed from Paris. Cruise “three quarters of the departures were people not born in
ships are only now starting to return to the Loyalty Islands New Caledonia.”
after months of delay. Guyenne said the recent riots will likely contribute to
Another challenge is to rebuild the nation’s main export a further exodus: “The ongoing crises have impacted the
industry, the mining and smelting of nickel. This year, New attractiveness of New Caledonia and many people have left.
Caledonia’s three nickel smelters—operated by Koniambo The CCI predicts that for all of this year, New Caledonia will
Nickel SAS (KNS), Prony Resources NC and Société Le Nickel lose (net) another 10,000 people.
(SLN)—all cut back operations. “Of course,” he added, “all those people contribute to
Even before the current conflict, all three companies revenues, they are contributors to companies with their skills,
faced a perfect storm, hit by soaring energy costs, industrial they are consumers in the economy, they are entrepreneurs
disputes, competition from Indonesia and fluctuating nickel and they are people who train young people. We want to stop
prices that affected debt, productivity and production. people leaving – that is killing our country. We need to stop
Exports of nickel ore and metal have tumbled over the last 18 the brain drain, the skills drain, the wealth drain.”
months. In August 2023, New Caledonia exported 1,804,352 Most people I met in Noumea last month had anecdotes
tonnes of humid nickel ore – for August this year, only 545,770 about friends or colleagues leaving New Caledonia, although
tonnes were shipped. In August 2023, 10,006 tonnes of nickel it’s difficult to determine exact numbers. Normally, a national
metal were produced for export – a year later, only 2732 census is conducted every five years, to gather precise data
tonnes. on demographic, economic and business trends. The last
The nickel industry was in trouble even before the recent census was held in 2019 with another due this year – but it
clashes. Transnational corporation Glencore confirmed it was impossible to organise during the crisis. ISEE currently
would sell its 49% share in the KNS joint venture, forcing the plans to conduct the census in the first half of 2025, if
suspension of mining and smelting operations last February. security conditions permit.
Glencore agreed to pay for workers’ wages and for the In the meantime, government, business and French
smelter’s furnaces to be kept hot until the end of August, but agencies are attempting to gather data from a range of
KNS finally shut down its furnaces in September, meaning job sources that might give an idea of the scale of movement:
losses for most of its 1200 employees. data from estate agents and moving companies; the sale of
“The jobs lost at KNS were good jobs – unionised and highly airline tickets; the number of electricity disconnections or
paid,” trade union leader Mélanie Atapo told Islands Business. apartments for rent.
“So the loss of 1200 jobs in the Northern Province is a real Even with this limited data, it’s been hard to get a clear
blow. Many of those workers were Kanak, and their wages picture of whether people are departing for good or just
flowed through to family and community, paying school fees leaving temporarily to take some time-out, or engage in
or contributing to their tribe through funerals, weddings and military service, medical care, or overseas tertiary studies.
customary obligations.” While most French nationals are heading back to Europe,
As President of the pro-independence trade union some have relocated to other Pacific dependencies like French
confederation USTKE, Atapo said her members were doing it Polynesia. At this year’s Pacific Islands Forum in Nuku’alofa,
hard: “We’ve already lost 300 members, mainly from private President Moetai Brotherson told Islands Business that a few
sector jobs in mining and tourism, but this number could hundred people had arrived in Tahiti from New Caledonia

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