Page 11 - IB February 2024

Geopolitics Geopolitics

Australia. Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that Nauru While that may add to the fluidity of northern Pacific
had asked Taiwan for US$81.5 million to “cover a financial geopolitics, Penjueli says the new right wing New Zealand
shortfall left by the temporary closure” of the immigration government’s moves towards AUKUS is unsurprising and
detention centre. The Australian government insisted the “represents the consolidation of the metropolitan powers
centre has not closed and that funding arrangements with in the South Pacific [around] regional institutions such as
Nauru were still in place. the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat (PIFS) on two fronts -
Australia’s Minister for the Pacific, Pat Conroy, said Nauru firstly the 2050 Strategy and in particular the funding of the
notified the government in advance about the announcement. implementation of the 2050 Strategy and secondly, on the
Anna Powles, Associate Professor at Massey University’s review of the regional architecture. It was therefore not
Centre for Defence and Security Studies, said that the surprising that one of Deputy PM Winston Peters’ first visits
likelihood that Nauru would switch recognition from Taiwan was to Fiji and to PIFS.”
to China “has been on the cards for awhile; the speed with “On the regional architecture, we know that at SPC
which Australia pursued the Falepili Agreement with Tuvalu (Pacific Community), all the former colonial powers (UK, EU
last year reflected concerns that Tuvalu was under pressure (Germany, France), Australia, NZ) are all deeply integrated
to switch recognition to China - these concerns extended to into the structure of SPC, particularly its governance
Nauru.” structures. We are seeing the same kinds of geopolitical
Asked whether Australia had dropped the ball on Nauru, posturing in our other technical organisations – Forum
Griffith University Associate Professor and project lead Fisheries Agency, even SPREP (Secretariat of the Pacific
for the Griffith Pacific Hub, Tess Newton Cain told Islands Regional Environment Programme).
Business that the economic situation in Nauru was said to “On the political front, at PIFS, we are likely to see the
be ‘desperate’ since the de-facto closure of the Regional contest in terms of “security narratives” - with Pacific Islands
Processing Centre there. long asserting that climate change remains the single greatest
“Whilst the Australian government is paying a ‘retainer’ to security threat for the region, whilst the metropolitan
keep the centre available if needed, the overall economic partners continue to advance a traditional security narrative
benefits (jobs, procurement, visa fees) are seriously reduced. rammed through AUKUS. At PIFS level, we will have to see
Where I think Australia ‘dropped the ball’ is in not prioritising how [Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni] Rabuka’s ‘Zone of Peace’
a legacy plan for economic activity in Nauru post-RPC,” said will play out as it increasingly becomes clear that AUKUS will
Cain. implicate the Rarotonga Treaty in several ways.
Within days of Nauru’s announcement, Republic of Marshall “The upcoming Solomon Islands election will be watched
Islands (RMI) Foreign Minister Kalani Kaneko reiterated that closely as well as the formation of the new government
his country “values the strong relationship with Republic in Tuvalu and policy orientation of Marshall Islands’ new
of China (Taiwan) as an indispensable partner in promotion government, to see how the geopolitics will continue to play
of democratic principles. The RMI pledges its diplomatic out in 2024. But the key place to watch will be PIFS.”
allegiance with Taiwan and will continue to stand in solidarity Cain sees the NZ/AUKUS development as “part of a wider
with the government and people of Taiwan.” escalation.”
“In the future, we will see the tempo of bilateral
Tuvalu’s waiting game engagements maintained and probably increased. This places
Tuvalu is still to choose a Prime Minister following its significant transaction costs on small bureaucracies, but it will
elections in late January. It was seen as significant that pro- be challenging to convince partners to ‘walk the talk’ when it
Taiwan incumbent Prime Minister, Kausea Natano, lost his comes to PIF centrality. The twin narratives of climate change
seat, while former Finance Minister Seve Paeniu — one of the and traditional ‘security’ will become further enmeshed.”
top PM hopefuls, pledged that he would review Tuvalu’s ties Massey University’s Powles highlighted another equally
with Taipei. Another candidate for the top job, Enele Sopoaga, significant implication for the Pacific Islands Forum.
who was PM from 2013 to 2019, does not want change. “I will “The incoming Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General,
not make any slightest change. There is no need to even look Baron Waqa, is the former President of Nauru and this may
at that issue right now,” he told the Central News Agency. weaken the Forum’s ability to withstand pressure to adopt the
Tuvalu does not have political parties. The elected One-China Policy.”
lawmakers will engage in direct talks, with the biggest group Waqa has had a reputation for standing up to Chinese
to emerge forming government. diplomats in Nauru.
While Palau and the Marshall Islands’ compact arrangements Says Cain: “I don’t know that Baron Waqa’s personal
with the United States puts them in a different category, “we proclivities will be particularly prominent or problematic but
have seen very recently that the leaders of these countries we will have to see how that goes once he is settled into the
(and FSM, which aligns with the PRC) have expressed job and we get a sense of how ‘hands on’ he plans to be.
strong concerns about Congress delaying the approval of “More significant is that if Tuvalu and Palau were to switch,
the renewed compact funding and that this is emboldening then I would expect that the PRC government will make
other actors (i.e., China) to push for a shift in diplomatic another, likely more assertive, push for the PIF to endorse the
arrangements,” says Cain. ‘One-China’ principle.”

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